A Spatial-Temporal/3-D Model for Volcanic Hazard Assessment: Application to the Yucca Mountain Region, Nevada |
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| Authors: | Chih-Hsiang Ho and Eugene I Smith |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, 4505 Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, Nevada, 89154-4020;(2) Center for Volcanic and Tectonic Studies, Department of Geoscience, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Las Vegas, Nevada, 89154-4010 |
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| Abstract: | We present a 3-D Poisson model that permits identification and quantification of volcanic phenomena distributed through space and evolving in time (i.e., spatiotemporal data). Specifically, the model: (1) is volcanologically informative in solving problems of volcanic risk/hazard which depends on the location and time of future events; (2) contains model fitting computation algorithms that are efficient; and (3) is flexible enough to handle a large class of volcanic risk/hazard studies. Furthermore, we apply the model fitting techniques developed in this paper to the volcanic data from the Yucca Mountain project to demonstrate a unified volcanic hazard analysis. This study also evaluates the sensitivity of the statistical models developed by experts who have addressed the volcanic hazard/risk assessment problem near the Yucca Mountain region. |
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| Keywords: | density estimation geologic repository spatiotemporal data stochastic model volcanic risk/hazard |
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