| 基于TRIGRS模型的浅层滑坡稳定性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 何简吟,邱海军,胡胜,杨文璐,裴艳茜,杨冬冬,张焱,马舒悦,曹明明.基于TRIGRS模型的浅层滑坡稳定性分析[J].第四纪研究,2019,39(5):1222-1234. |
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| 作者姓名： | 何简吟 邱海军 胡胜 杨文璐 裴艳茜 杨冬冬 张焱 马舒悦 曹明明 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北大学城市与环境学院,陕西西安710127;陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室,陕西西安710127;西北大学城市与环境学院,陕西西安710127;陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室,陕西西安710127;西北大学地表系统与灾害研究院,陕西西安710127 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）;国家自然科学基金;中国科学院战略性先导科技专项;中国科学院国际合作局对外合作重点项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用基于网格的瞬态降雨入渗(TRIGRS)模型,以滑坡灾害频发的陕南安康市东部巴山东段白河县为研究区,探讨模型适用性及不同降雨条件下边坡稳定性空间分布规律。根据中国土壤分布图并结合已有研究,选取模拟所需的水土力学参数。将模拟所得研究区稳定性分布图与实际滑坡目录对比分析进行TRIGRS模型精度评估,分别模拟连阴雨和短时间强降雨两种降雨情景,探讨研究区边坡稳定性空间分布规律,结果表明:1)TRIGRS模型在模拟预测降雨诱发型浅层滑坡时,结合受试者特征ROC曲线进行精度评估,曲线下面积为0.752,说明此模型在白河县进行滑坡模拟时具有一定的合理性与准确性,能反应该地区滑坡灾害的空间分布特征;2)连阴雨情景模拟下,极不稳定区域主要集中在北部低山地貌区,以冷水镇和麻虎镇为主,随降雨历时增加向东部和南部增多,西部仓上镇、西营镇和双丰镇的极不稳定区域面积较少,能承受长时间连续性降雨。短时间强降雨对边坡稳定性的影响更为直接,极不稳定区域随降雨强度增大而增加,以冷水镇和麻虎镇为主要防范区域。结合地形分析,极陡峭区域边坡稳定性最差,无法承受持续性降雨和高强度降雨,较陡峭区域更易受到降雨历时和降雨强度的影响,而平缓区域则能承受长时间及高强度的降雨;3)TRIGRS模型根据不同降雨条件预测易发生滑坡灾害的区域,为滑坡实时预报警系统提供了新的可能方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 浅层滑坡 TRIGRS模型 稳定性分析 白河县 |
STABILITY ANALYSIS OF SHALLOW LANDSLIDES BASED ON TRIGRS MODEL |
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| He Jianyin,Qiu Haijun,Hu Sheng,Yang Wenlu,Pei Yanqian,Yang Dongdong,Zhang Yan,Ma Shuyue,Cao Mingming.STABILITY ANALYSIS OF SHALLOW LANDSLIDES BASED ON TRIGRS MODEL[J].Quaternary Sciences,2019,39(5):1222-1234. |
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| Authors: | He Jianyin Qiu Haijun Hu Sheng Yang Wenlu Pei Yanqian Yang Dongdong Zhang Yan Ma Shuyue Cao Mingming |
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| Institution: | (College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Northwest University,Xi'an 710127,Shaanxi;Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity,Xi'an 710127,Shaanxi;Institute of Earth Surface System and Hazards,Northwest University,Xi'an 710127,Shaanxi) |
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| Abstract: | Rainfall and landslides are well developed in Qinba Mountain in southern Shaanxi Province. The variation and spatial distribution of rainfall are positive factors to affect shallow landslides. The transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis (TRIGRS) model was adopted in this study to calculate slope-stability and forecast landslides. Take Baihe County (32°34'~32°55'N, 109°37'~110°10'E) as the study area, which has adequate rainfall and is prone to shallow landslides. The study area is located in the east of Ankang City, Shaanxi Province. Combined with remote sensing interpretation and survey statistics, there are 284 landslides in total, shallow landslides accounted for 95.1%. The TRIGRS model combines infiltration module, hydraulic module and runoff calculation to assess the slope stability. The input parameters of TRIGRS model mainly include rainfall data, soil and hydraulic parameters. Assumption based on soil type and existing studies were used to estimate simulation parameters. Combined with the 10.7 mm rainfall which is the average daily precipitation in study area, the landslide stability distribution map was obtained after 24 h of simulated rainfall. The landslide stability was divided into high unstable, unstable, potentially unstable, relatively stable and stable areas, and landslide points accounted for 5.63%, 25.35%, 34.86%, 13.38% and 20.77% respectively in each grade. The accuracy of TRIGRS model was assessed by the Receiving Operation Characteristics (ROC) curve. The area under the curve is 0.752. Then simulated continuous rain and short rainstorm respectively to analyze the spatial distribution of slope stability in the study area which provides a foundation for disaster prevention and control in the research area. The summarized results are as follows:the TRIGRS model has some degree of reasonability and accuracy in simulating and predicting rainfall-induced shallow landslides. In continuous rain simulation, the high unstable region mainly concentrated in the north of the low mountain area, with Lengshui town and Mahu town primary. The area increases with rainfall duration to the east and south. But Cangshang, Xiying and Shuangfeng towns in the west have less high unstable areas, which can withstand continuous rainfall. On the other hand, short rainstorm has a more direct effect on slope stability. The high unstable areas increases with the rainfall intensity. The main prevention regions are Lengshui and Mahu towns. Combined with topographic analysis, the slope stability in extremely steep areas is the worst, unable to withstand continuous rainfall and high-intensity rainfall. The steep areas are more susceptible to the influence of rainfall duration and intensity, while the gentle areas can withstand long-term and high-intensity rainfall. TRIGRS model can predict areas prone to landslides according to different rainfall conditions, reducing disaster losses and providing a new possible method for landslide real-time warning system. |
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| Keywords: | shallow landslide TRIGRS model stability analysis Baihe County |
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