| 基于贝叶斯判别的页岩气储层总有机碳含量分类预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 殷梅,岑超,阮娟,等.基于贝叶斯判别的页岩气储层总有机碳含量分类预测方法[J].地质学刊,2020,44(4):362-369. |
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| 作者姓名： | 殷梅 岑超 阮娟 等 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏省有色金属华东地质勘查局 |
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| 基金项目： | 江苏省第五期“333高层次人才培养工程”项目“江苏省页岩气资源调查的地球物理勘探技术集成研究”，江苏省专项资金项目“江苏省页岩气资源调查与评价”（苏发改能源[2015]1541号） |
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| 摘 要： | 页岩气属于非常规能源，储量非常丰富，主要赋存于富有机质泥页岩及其夹层中。总有机碳（TOC）含量是页岩气储层评价的重要参数之一，综合利用富有机质泥页岩的典型测井响应特征，提出利用测井曲线预测TOC分类，进而识别富有机质泥页岩的方法,并以江苏南京汤地1井为例，通过相关性分析优选出自然伽马、深侧向电阻率、中子孔隙度、自然电位4个测井参数，建立了总有机碳含量的贝叶斯自动判别分类模型。实际资料的处理结果显示，样品回判正确率为71.43%，表明该方法可有效弥补实验室测定总有机碳含量的不足，能够快速评价富有机质泥页岩层段。
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| 关 键 词： | 贝叶斯判别 测井参数 总有机碳（TOC）含量 富有机质泥页岩 页岩气 江苏南京 |
Classification and prediction method of total organic carbon content in shale gas reservoir based on Bayesian discrimination |
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| Yin Mei,Cen Chao,Ruan Juan,et al.Classification and prediction method of total organic carbon content in shale gas reservoir based on Bayesian discrimination[J].Jiangsu Geology,2020,44(4):362-369. |
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| Authors: | Yin Mei Cen Chao Ruan Juan |
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| Abstract: | As an unconventional energy source, shale gas is an important alternative energy source with abundant reserves and occurs in organic-rich clay shale and its interlayers. Total organic carbon (TOC) content is an important parameter in evaluating shale gas reservoir. This paper proposes the method of classification and prediction of TOC with the logging curve to identify organic-rich mud shale based on comprehensive analysis of logging response characteristics of organic-rich mud shale. Taking the geological survey well Tangdi 1 in Jiangsu Provincee for instance, Bayesian automatic discriminant classification model of TOC was established on the optimization of 4 well logging parameters of natural gamma, deep lateral resistivity, neutron porosity and self potential by correlation analysis. Real data procession shows that the feedback correct rate of samples is 71.43%. The results show that the method can effectively compensate for the deficiency of experimental determination of TOC, which can be an effective way to evaluate the organic-rich mud shale intervals. |
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| Keywords: | Bayesian discrimination logging parameter TOC content organic-rich clay shale shale gas Nanjing Jiangsu |
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