Using tree-ring signals and numerical model to identify the snow avalanche tracks in Kastamonu,Turkey |
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Authors: | Nesibe Köse Abdurrahim Ayd?n Ünal Akkemik Hüseyin Yurtseven Tuncay Güner |
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Institution: | (1) Faculty of Forestry, Department of Forest Botany, Istanbul University, 34473 Bahcekoy-Istanbul, Turkey;(2) The Western Black Sea Forestry Research Institute, 14001 Bolu, Turkey;(3) Faculty of Forestry, Department of Surveying and Photogrammetry, Istanbul University, 34473 Bahcekoy-Istanbul, Turkey |
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Abstract: | Many parts of our planet are exposed to natural disasters such as snow avalanches, floods and earthquakes. Detailed knowledge
on these natural disasters is crucial for human safety. On December 25–26, 1992, two avalanches occurred at Kayaarkası-Kastamonu
in northern Turkey. The first avalanche took place at night of 25–26 December and caused no damage. The second avalanche took
place at morning of 26 December, killed four people and did damage to properties. The purpose of the present study is to determine
the effects of the snow avalanches on tree rings and to investigate the boundaries and velocities of the avalanches using
a numerical simulation model and the tree-ring data. Increment cores from 71 trees in the avalanche-impacted area and the
control site were sampled to obtain individual standard chronologies. In the analyses, trees were grouped as (1) heavily damaged
by the avalanche, showing a decrease in tree-ring widths since the event, (2) trees heavily damaged by the avalanche, showing
an increase in tree-ring widths a couple of years later the event and (3) trees that were not damaged by the avalanche. In
this study, one of the most important results is the precise determination of the temporal and spatial patterns of the undocumented
avalanche (the first avalanche) event. Avalanches were numerically simulated using dynamical avalanche simulation software
ELBA+. Comparison of the simulation model with tree-ring analysis revealed valuable results about the boundaries of the zone
of influence of the avalanches. |
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