Spatially distributed rainfall thresholds for the initiation of shallow landslides |
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| Authors: | Diana Salciarini Claudio Tamagnini Pietro Conversini Silvia Rapinesi |
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| Institution: | 1.Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale,Università degli Studi di Perugia,Perugia,Italy |
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| Abstract: | The evaluation of the combined influence of rainfall patterns (in terms of mean intensity and duration) and the geomorphological
and mechanical characteristics of hillslopes on their stability conditions is a major goal in the assessment of the shallow
landslide triggering processes. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) represent an important tool to develop models that combine
hydrological and geomechanical analyses for the evaluation of slope stability, as they allow to combine information concerning
rainfall characteristics with topographic and mechanical properties of the slopes over wide areas. In this paper, a GIS-based
code is developed to determine physically based intensity/duration rainfall thresholds at the local scale. Given the rainfall
duration and the local geometric, hydrological and mechanical characteristics of the slopes, the code evaluates the spatial
distribution of the minimum rainfall intensity that triggers shallow landslides and debris flows over a given area. The key
feature of the code is the capability of evaluating the time t
p
required to reach the peak pore pressure head on the failure surface and computing the corresponding critical intensity/duration
thresholds based on post-event peak pore pressures. The reliability of the model is tested using a set of one-dimensional
analyses, comparing the physically based thresholds obtained for three different slopes with some empirical rainfall thresholds.
In a log–log scale, the thresholds provided by the model decrease linearly with increased rainfall duration and they are bracketed
by the empirical thresholds considered. Finally, an example of application to a study area of the Umbria region in central
Italy is presented, describing the capability of the model of providing site-specific thresholds for different rainfall scenarios. |
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