Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Panama |
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| Authors: | Aristoteles Vergara Muñoz |
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| Institution: | (1) Seismological Department, Institute for Geophysics, Uppsala University, Box 12019, S-750 12 Uppsala, Sweden;(2) Centre of Coordination for Prevention of Natural Disasters in Central America, 7a Av. 14-57, Zona 13, Guatemala |
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| Abstract: | Probabilistic seismic hazard maps in term of Modified Mercalli (MM) intensity are derived by applying the  Cornell-McGuire method to four earthquake source zones in Panama and adjacent areas. The maps contain estimates of the maximum MM intensity for return periods of 5, 25 and 100 yr. The earthquake phenomenon is based on the point source model. The probabilistic iso-intensity map for a return period of 50 yr indicates that the Panama Suture Zone (PSZ) could experience a maximum (MM) intensity IX, and the Panama Fracture Zone (PFZ) an MM intensity VIII, for the rest of the area this varies from IV up to VIII. The present study intends to serve as a reference for more advanced approaches, to stimulate discussions and suggestions on the data base, assumptions and inputs, and path for the risk based assessment of the seismic hazard in the site selection and in the design of common buildings and engineering. |
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| Keywords: | Seismic hazard zonation probabilistic iso-intensity maps tectonic block seismic sources seismic hazard computation |
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