Risk perception and evacuation decisions of Florida tourists under hurricane threats: a stated preference analysis |
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| Authors: | Corene Matyas Sivaramakrishnan Srinivasan Ignatius Cahyanto Brijesh Thapa Lori Pennington-Gray Jorge Villegas |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Geography, University of Florida, 3141 Turlington Hall Box 117315, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA;(2) Department of Civil and Coastal Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA;(3) Tourism Crisis Management Institute, Eric Friedheim Tourism Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA;(4) Department of Tourism, Recreation, and Sport Management, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA;(5) Department of Business Administration, University of Illinois at Springfield, Springfield, IL, USA |
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| Abstract: | Though most hurricane evacuation studies have focused on residents, tourists are also a vulnerable population. To assess their
perceptions of risk and evacuation likelihood under different hurricane conditions, we surveyed 448 tourists visiting central
Florida. Respondents viewed four maps emulating track forecast cones produced by the National Hurricane Center and text information
featuring variations of storm intensity, coast of landfall, centerline position relative to the survey site, time until landfall,
and event duration. We performed chi-square tests to determine which hurricane conditions, and aspects of tourists such as
their demographics and previous hurricane experience, most likely influenced their ratings of risk and evacuation likelihood
for respondents located on Pinellas County beaches or inland near Orlando, FL. Highly rated scenarios featured a Category
4 hurricane making landfall along the Gulf Coast with the centerline passing over the sampling site. Overall, tourists that
indicated the highest risk and evacuation ratings were not previously affected by a hurricane, had a trip duration of less
than 6 days, and had checked for the possibility of a hurricane strike before departure. However, results for other tourist
attributes differed between tourists in coastal and inland locations. We found that although somewhat knowledgeable about
hurricanes, tourists misinterpreted the track forecast cone and hurricane conditions, which led to a lower perception of risk
and subsequent likelihood to evacuate. Tourists, particularly those from outside of Florida, need to be better educated about
the risks they face from hurricanes that make landfall. |
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