Impact of Climate Change on the Regional Hydrology – Scenario-Based Modelling Studies in the German Rhine Catchment |
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| Authors: | Lucas Menzel Annegret H Thieken Daniel Schwandt Gerd Bürger |
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| Institution: | (1) Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kurt-Wolters-Str. 3, 34109 Kassel, Germany;(2) GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam (GFZ), Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;(3) Federal Institute of Hydrology, 56068 Koblenz, Germany;(4) Meteorological Institute, Free University, 12165 Berlin, Germany |
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| Abstract: | The aim of the study is an impact analysis of global climate change on regional hydrology with special emphasis on discharge
conditions and floods. The investigations are focussed on the major part of the German Rhine catchment with a drainage area
of approx. 110,000 km2. This area is subdivided into 23 subcatchments. In a first step, the hydrological model HBV-D serves to simulate runoff conditions
under present climate for the individual subbasins. Simulated, large scale atmospheric fields, provided by two different Global
Circulation Models (GCMs) and driven by the emission scenario IS95a (“business as usual”) are then used as input to the method
of expanded downscaling (EDS). EDS delivers local time series of scenario climate as input to HBV-D. In a final step, the
investigations are focussed on the assessment of possible future runoff conditions under the impact of climate change. The
study indicates a potential increase in precipitation, mean runoff and flood discharge for small return intervals. However,
the uncertainty range that originates from the application of the whole model chain and two different GCMs is high. This leads
to high cumulative uncertainties, which do not allow conclusions to be drawn on the development of future extreme floods. |
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| Keywords: | climate change regional hydrology floods uncertainty |
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