| 基于数值模拟的三峡库区典型堆积层滑坡变形预测方法 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 晏鄂川,朱大鹏,宋琨,林云钿.基于数值模拟的三峡库区典型堆积层滑坡变形预测方法[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2012,42(2):422-429. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 晏鄂川 朱大鹏 宋琨 林云钿 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国地质大学工程学院,武汉,430074;西南石油大学土木工程与建筑学院,成都,610500 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41172282);三峡库区三期地质灾害防治监测预警工程资助项目(SXJC-3ZH1D1-合[2009]003);四川省教育厅重点科研项目(10ZA074) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 目前对堆积层滑坡的变形预测大多基于数学模型或方法,忽略了引起滑坡位移显著变化的动力外因及滑坡自身的地质特征,因此,预报准确度和可信度较低。以三峡库区典型堆积层滑坡———鹤峰场镇滑坡为例,通过4组主要控制因素科学组合构建了滑坡的基本地质模型;以此为基础,重点考虑引起滑坡发生变形的库水作用动力因素,建立滑坡的数值-力学模型。通过实际监测点的变形监测结果与数值-力学模型中模型监测点的变形进行拟合分析,获取了实际时间与数值-力学模型中时步的等效关系;基于时间-时步等效关系及三峡水库设计水位调度曲线,得到了不同时步水位的波动特征;通过时步的外延,并在相应的时步段对数值-力学模型施加等效时间的库水作用,预测了滑坡在未来库水位变动条件下的变形。该预测方法既考虑了滑坡的工程地质模型又考虑了地下水作用效应,克服了纯数学方法预测的不足。
|
| 关 键 词： | 滑坡 堆积层滑坡 变形预测 地质模型 地下水作用 |
Deformation Prediction Method of Typical Accumulative Landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Numerical Modeling |
| |
| Yan E-chuan
,
Zhu Da-peng
,
Song Kun
,
Lin Yun-dian.Deformation Prediction Method of Typical Accumulative Landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Numerical Modeling[J].Journal of Jilin Unviersity:Earth Science Edition,2012,42(2):422-429. |
| |
| Authors: | Yan E-chuan Zhu Da-peng Song Kun Lin Yun-dian |
| |
| Institution: | 1.Faculty of Engineering,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China 2.School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China |
| |
| Abstract: | An external power leading to significant landslide displacement and own geological characteristics of landslide are usually ignored in most researches based on mathematical models or methods,so deformation prediction of accumulative landslides is of low accuracy and reliability.Taking typical accumulative Hefeng landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir as an example,four major controlling factors are constituted scientifically to establish the geological model of the landslide.A numerical-mechanical model was established considering emphatically the external reservoir water effect.And then comparing the data of field monitoring in strong deformation zone and the displacement track points in numerical model,the equivalent relation between the actual time and the step in FLAC3D model is obtained,and characteristics of water level fluctuations under different step is determined based on time-step relation and design operation water level curves of Three Gorges Reservoir.Then the deformation trends of landslide was forecast for next hydrological year by the extension of the step.The prediction method not only considers the based engineering geological model of landslide,but also considers the effects of groundwater,and it overcomes the shortage of pure mathematical prediction methods. |
| |
| Keywords: | landslides accumulative landslide deformation prediction engineering geological model groundwater effects |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
