| 准等时距QGM(1,1)模型分段预测法及其在草炭土路基沉降预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 沈世伟,佴磊,徐燕.准等时距QGM(1,1)模型分段预测法及其在草炭土路基沉降预测中的应用[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2011,41(4):1098-1103. |
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| 作者姓名： | 沈世伟 佴磊 徐燕 |
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| 作者单位： | 吉林大学建设工程学院,长春,130026;吉林大学建设工程学院,长春,130026;吉林大学建设工程学院,长春,130026 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(40772169) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用传统非等时距模型预测草炭土路基沉降时,存在计算繁琐、中短期预报精度低等缺点,尤其是当沉降曲线存在斜率突变点时,采用该模型很难达到预测精度的要求。针对以上不足,对非等时距时间序列进行平均步长换算,得到准等时距序列,利用线性插值法对原始沉降数据进行修正,得到改进后的准等时距QGM(1,1)预测模型,并将沉降曲线在斜率突变点处分成两部分进行分段预测。实例计算表明:采用改进后的准等时距QGM(1,1)模型预测草炭土路基沉降,两段的预测值平均误差分别为2.99%和0.25%,均远远小于传统非等时距模型,且具有很高的中短期预测精度,可以为工程沉降控制提供可靠参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 准等时距QGM(1 1)模型 平均步长换算 分段预测 草炭土 沉降预测 |
Quasi-Equal Interval QGM(1,1) Model Forecasting Method and Its Application in Settlement Prediction of Turfy Soil Subgrade |
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| SHEN Shi-wei,NAI Lei,XU Yan.Quasi-Equal Interval QGM(1,1) Model Forecasting Method and Its Application in Settlement Prediction of Turfy Soil Subgrade[J].Journal of Jilin Unviersity:Earth Science Edition,2011,41(4):1098-1103. |
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| Authors: | SHEN Shi-wei NAI Lei XU Yan |
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| Institution: | SHEN Shi-wei,NAI Lei,XU YanCollege of Construction Engineering,Jilin University,Changchun 130026,China |
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| Abstract: | To predict the settlement of turfy soil subgrade with the method of traditional non-equal interval models,there are a few shortages such as cumbersome calculation and low accuracy for short-term forecast Especially when there is a slope mutation point in the subsidence curve,it is difficult to meet the prediction accuracy requirements.For the above shortcomings,average step length conversion is used for non-equal interval sequence to obtain quasi-equal interval sequence;the improved quasi-equal interval QGM... |
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| Keywords: | quasi-equal interval QGM(1 1) model average step length conversion time segment forecasting turfy soil settlement prediction |
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