| 暴雨泥石流高发地区年降水量的灰色拓扑预测--以昆明市东川区为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 周春花,唐川,铁永波.暴雨泥石流高发地区年降水量的灰色拓扑预测--以昆明市东川区为例[J].云南地理环境研究,2006,18(1):6-9. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周春花 唐川 铁永波 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 云南大学,资源环境与地球科学学院,云南,昆明,650091
2. 云南师范大学,旅游与地理科学学院,云南,昆明,650092 |
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| 摘 要： | 气候系统是较典型的灰色系统，适于应用灰色系统理论预测模型进行预测。东川是泥石流高发区，降水是促发泥石流的动力条件，是泥石流预报的重要依据。基于1981-2003年的降水资料，应用灰色系统（1，1）预测模型，对东川地区未来年份的降水量进行了灰色预测，预测效果良好，可为当地气象部门、农业部门及防灾减灾部门提供科学的依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色预测 降水量 泥石流 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-7852(2006)01-0006-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-01-10 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-05-30 |
THE APPLICATION OF TOPOLOGICAL FORCAST METHOD OF GREY THEORY IN THE STORM CAUSED DEBRIS FLOW AREA--TAKE DONGCHUAN AS AN EXAMPLE |
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| ZHOU Chun-hua,TANG Chuan,TIE Yong-bo.THE APPLICATION OF TOPOLOGICAL FORCAST METHOD OF GREY THEORY IN THE STORM CAUSED DEBRIS FLOW AREA--TAKE DONGCHUAN AS AN EXAMPLE[J].Yunnan Geographic Environment Research,2006,18(1):6-9. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Chun-hua TANG Chuan TIE Yong-bo |
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| Institution: | 1.Science of Resource Environment and Earth Science of Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, Yunnan,China; 2. The College of Tourism and Geographical Science of Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650092,Yunnan, China |
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| Abstract: | Climate system is the typical grey system which more suitable for grey prediction.The precipitation is the mainly motive factors of debris flow occurrence,especially in the precipitation induced debris flow area-Dongchuan.Based on the precipitation data of every year in Dongchuan from 1981 to 2003,by established the GM(1,1) forecast model,discussed occurrence time of different annual precipitation.The effect is proved to be very good,this results can give reasonable suggestions for debris flow hazard mitigation. |
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| Keywords: | Grey Predict Model precipitation debris flow |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
