| 多因变量物理集成方法在雨季开始预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 解福燕,李文祥,杨韬.多因变量物理集成方法在雨季开始预测中的应用[J].云南地理环境研究,2009,21(3):63-67. |
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| 作者姓名： | 解福燕 李文祥 杨韬 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南省玉溪市,气象局,云南,玉溪,653100 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过计算全球1951～2008年100hPa、500hPa高空资料、74项大气环流特征量、地面气压、太平洋海温以及中国160个测站的降水、气温等6种环流场和特征值与雨季开始期的相关性，找出了雨季开始期变化的高影响关键区，对关键区进行因子合成，筛选出了5种环流场的33个关键因子，分析因子的最佳界值和正贡献指数，经线性回归计算，建立分类环流一次预报方程和综合环流多因子集成预报二次方程，最后通过二次方程和正贡献指数方程建立三次集成预报模型，投入实际气候预测应用，4年来准确预测了玉溪雨季开始期。
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| 关 键 词： | 多因变量 物理集成 雨季开始预测 |
APPLICATION OF MULTIPLE FACTORS PHYSICAL INTEGRATION METHOD IN PREDICTION OF RAINY SEASON ONSET |
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| XIE Fu-yan,LI Wen-xiang,YANG Tao.APPLICATION OF MULTIPLE FACTORS PHYSICAL INTEGRATION METHOD IN PREDICTION OF RAINY SEASON ONSET[J].Yunnan Geographic Environment Research,2009,21(3):63-67. |
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| Authors: | XIE Fu-yan LI Wen-xiang YANG Tao |
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| Institution: | ( Yuxi Meteorological Bureau of Yunnan Province, Yuxi 653100, Yunnan,China) |
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| Abstract: | By computing the correlation between circulation fields, characteristic values (including global high altitude data of 100 hPa and 500 hPa, 74 items of atmospheric - circulation characteristics, ground air pressure, sea surface temperatures of the Pacific during 1951 ～ 2008 as well as precipitation, air temperature of 160 meteor-ological stations in China etc. ) and rainy season onset, then finding out the key area that has heavy influence on the variety in rainy season onset. Doing factor synthesis on the key area, and screening out 33 key factors in 5 kinds of circulation fields. Analyzing the best critical value and positive contribution index number of factors, then building up the linear forecast equation of classified circulation and the quadratic equation of comprehensive circu-lation multiple factors integrating forecast, finally building up the cubic integration model of forecast which pre-dict the rainy season onset of Yuxi accurately in the actual usage for four years. |
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| Keywords: | multiple factors physical integration prediction of rainy season onset |
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