Regionalization and susceptibility assessment to daily precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal |
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| Institution: | 1. Soil and Terrestrial Environmental Physics (STEP), Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics (IBP), ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland;2. Mountain Hydrology and Mass Movements, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland;1. Department of Geosciences, University of Tübingen, Rümelinstraße 19-23, 72070 Tübingen, Germany;2. CEMSE Division and PSE Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia;3. Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Via Archirafi 22, 90123 Palermo, Italy;1. Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment (Nanjing Normal University), Ministry of Education, Nanjing 210023, China;2. State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution (Jiangsu Province), Nanjing 210023, China;3. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographic Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China;4. Geographic Information System group, Department of Economics and Computer Sciences, Telemark University College, Bø i Telemark, N-3800, Norway;5. School of Systems, Management and Leadership, Faculty of Engineering and IT, University of Technology Sydney, CB11.06.217, Building 11, 81 Broadway, Ultimo, NSW 2007, (PO Box 123), Australia;6. Department of Energy and Mineral Resources Engineering, Choongmu-gwan, Sejong University, 209 Neungdong-ro Gwangjin-gu, Seoul 05006, Republic of Korea;7. Department of Civil Engineering, Kangwon National University, Republic of Korea;8. Department of Civil Engineering, Gujarat Technological University, Nr.Visat Three Roads, Visat - Gandhinagar Highway, Chandkheda, Ahmedabad 382424, Gujarat, India;9. Department of Geotechnical Engineering, University of Transport Technology, 54 Trieu Khuc, Thanh Xuan, Ha Noi, Viet Nam;10. College of Geology and Environment, Xi''an University of Science and Technology, Xi''an 710054, China;11. Department of Geoinformation, Faculty of Geoinformation and Real Estate, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Malaysia |
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| Abstract: | The present study aims to identify regions of extreme precipitation in mainland Portugal and to create a single index of extreme precipitation susceptibility (EPSI). For this purpose, twelve extreme precipitation indices were selected from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices between 1950 and 2003. By considering only six extreme precipitation indices: R×1day, R×5day, SDII, R20, CWD and R95PTOT for the 10-year return period, between 1950 and 2003, the EPSI was developed to both annual data and meteorological season. The regionalization of extreme precipitation in Portugal were determined using a principal component analysis in T-mode. The results, show three spatial regions obtained from PCA. The three regions were analyzed separate. In the annual EPSI, the highest susceptibility areas are the mountainous regions in northern (e.g. Gerês, Peneda, Alvão, Marão and Montesinho) and central Portugal (e.g. Serra da Estrela), as well as in the Algarve (southern Portugal). Conversely, the lower susceptibility classes are in municipalities of the northeast, Alentejo and along the central-western coast. The results of EPSI show similar results in autumn and winter. In spring, however, the high susceptibility class increases in the Lisbon region and in the Sado Basin. In summer, there is an increase in susceptibility in the northeast, while susceptibility is low over much of Alentejo and Algarve, where precipitation is neglectful. This work presents a first attempt to implement this type of index for mainland Portugal. The first results are very promising, showing a consistent representation of the overall spatial distribution of extreme precipitation susceptibility. The combination of this information by municipalities can be of foremost relevance to civil protection and risk management. |
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| Keywords: | Regionalization Extreme precipitation Susceptibility Portugal Floods Landslides |
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