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| 地理因子在北疆极端气温趋势变化中的作用 | |
| 引用本文： | 赵煊,卞韬,任国玉,张艳品,韩子霏.地理因子在北疆极端气温趋势变化中的作用[J].地理科学进展,2021,40(4):681-692. |
| 作者姓名： | 赵煊 卞韬 任国玉 张艳品 韩子霏 |
| 作者单位： | 1.中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,乌鲁木齐 830001 2.河北省石家庄市气象局,石家庄 050081 3.中国地质大学(武汉)环境学院大气科学系,武汉430074 4.中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,国家气候中心,北京 100081 5.兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州 730000 |
| 基金项目： | 中国沙漠气象科学研究基金项目(Sqj2018008) |
| 摘 要： | 论文利用1961—2017年北疆地区37个观测站的逐日气温资料以及高程数据,选取了3类(冷指数、暖指数和极值指数)15项极端气温指数,采用相关分析和灰色关联度统计分析方法,研究了地理因子在北疆极端气温趋势变化中的作用。结果表明：① 北疆地区气候变暖显著,极端气温冷指数呈非常显著的下降趋势,暖指数及极值指数呈显著或非常显著的上升趋势;气候变暖主要体现为极端冷事件频次降低、夜间温度以及极端低温升高,具有白天和夜间变化的不对称性以及低温和高温变化的不平衡性等特征。② 极端气温指数在北疆中部盆地地区上升(下降)趋势最强,在北疆北部及南部山区地带,上升(下降)趋势相对较小。地形分布对气候趋势的影响程度暖指数大于冷指数,海拔高度对极端气温事件的出现频次有较大影响。③ 极端气温指数趋势的经向分布是其空间分布的主导模态。北疆地区极端气温指数趋势性变化北部大于南部、西部大于东部,南北趋势性变化差异最大处位于北疆中部地区。极端气温指数趋势性变化的南北差异与海拔高度呈负相关,在山地地区,纬度对于极端气温指数的气候趋势影响较小,而在盆地地区,纬度为影响极端气温指数气候趋势的重要因子。经向上,除炎热夜数增加趋势与海拔高度的相关性较低外,北疆东部极端气温指数的趋势性变化与海拔高度相关性高于北疆西部。④ 地理因子对极端气温指数的趋势变化具有显著的影响(灰色关联度均大于0.6,为高度关联),影响程度暖指数大于冷指数。地理因子对冷指数的影响在山地、丘陵地区较强,而对暖指数的影响主要为地势较为平缓的丘陵和盆地地区。 |
| 关 键 词： | 北疆 极端气温指数 变化趋势 地理因子 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-06-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020-11-04 |
Possible impacts of geographical factors on long-term trends of extreme temperature indices over northern Xinjiang,China |
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| ZHAO Xuan,BIAN Tao,REN Guoyu,ZHANG Yanpin,HAN Zifei.Possible impacts of geographical factors on long-term trends of extreme temperature indices over northern Xinjiang,China[J].Progress in Geography,2021,40(4):681-692. | |
| Authors: | ZHAO Xuan BIAN Tao REN Guoyu ZHANG Yanpin HAN Zifei |
| Abstract: | Based on the daily temperature data of 37 stations in northern Xinjiang from 1961 to 2017 and elevation, 15 extreme temperature indices of 3 categories (cold indices, warm indices, and extreme indices) were selected to explore the possible impacts of geographical factors on long-term trends of extreme temperature indices over northern Xinjiang by means of correlation analysis and grey correlation degree. The results show that: 1) Climate warming is significant in northern Xinjiang, the extreme temperature cold indices show a very significant downward trend, and the warm and extreme indices show a significant or very significant upward trend; climate warming is mainly reflected in the decrease of extreme cold event frequency, and the rise of night temperature and extreme low temperature, which has the characteristics of asymmetry of daytime and nighttime changes and imbalance of low and high temperature changes. 2) The trends of extreme temperature indices in the central basin area of northern Xinjiang are the strongest, while relatively small in the mountainous areas. The influence of topography on the long-term trends of warm indices is greater than that of cold indices. Altitude has a great influence on the frequency of extreme temperature events. 3) The meridional distribution of the trends of extreme temperature indices is the dominant pattern of their spatial distribution. The tendency variations of extreme temperature indices in northern Xinjiang are greater in the north than in the south, and greater in the west than in the east. The biggest difference of tendency variation between the north and the south is in the central part of Northern Xinjiang, and the difference has a negative correlation with altitude, which indicates that latitude has little influence on the long-term trends of the extreme temperature indices in mountainous areas, while it is an important factor in the basin. In the meridional direction, the increasing trend of hot nights has a lower correlation with altitude, while the other indices have a higher correlation with latitude in the east than in the west of northern Xinjiang. 4) Geographical factors have significant influences on long-term trends of extreme temperature indices (the grey correlation degrees are greater than 0.6, which means a high correlation), and the influences of geographical factors on warm indices are greater than cold indices. The influences of geographical factors on the cold indices are stronger in the mountainous and hilly areas, while the influences on the warm indices are mainly manifested in the hilly and basin areas with relatively flat terrain. |
| Keywords: | northern Xinjiang extreme temperature indices long-term trends geographical factors |
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