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| 暴雨内涝情景下城市消防服务可达性的精细化评估 | |
| 引用本文： | 李睿,王军,李梦雅.暴雨内涝情景下城市消防服务可达性的精细化评估[J].地理科学进展,2022,41(1):143-156. |
| 作者姓名： | 李睿 王军 李梦雅 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海 200241 2. 华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海 200241 3. 华东师范大学上海城市公共安全研究中心,上海 200241 |
| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金重大项目(18ZDA105);国家自然科学基金项目(41971199);国家自然科学基金项目(42001182);中国博士后科学基金项目(2019M661424) |
| 摘 要： | 为了揭示城市暴雨内涝灾害对应急响应服务功能的影响,论文基于高精度城市洪涝模型(FloodMap)和增强型两步移动搜寻法(E2SFCA),对暴雨内涝灾害影响下上海市中心城区消防服务可达性进行精细化评估。研究结果表明：① 百年一遇暴雨内涝情景下,内涝最严重时积水深度超过50 cm的淹没范围整体呈现“西高东低”分布态势,淹没总面积约1.5 km2,可导致471条路段(约占路网全长5.11%)通行受阻。② 上海市中心城区消防服务可达性的空间差异比较显著,大体呈现出由黄浦江两岸向西北和东南方向递减态势,但在一天中的不同时段,可达性空间格局变化并不明显。③ 与正常天气条件相比,暴雨内涝情景下不可达单元(250 m×250 m)数量显著增多,夜间低峰、早高峰、白天平峰和晚高峰时段分别增加36.32%、35.89%、39.07%和32.01%;从暴雨内涝的过程(全程120 min)上看,在雨峰后半段((30, 45] min)不可达单元数量最多,消防服务可达性的空间差异程度最大。④ 消防服务可达性表现出一定程度的空间集聚特征,其中高值聚集区(“高—高”型)主要位于黄浦江两岸以及浦西边缘地区,低值聚集区(“低—低”型)主要位于西北和西南区域,这2类聚集区呈“团块状”分布,而“高—低”型和“低—高”型集聚均不显著。⑤ 研究区内消防服务可达性与需求的空间失配现象(“低需求—高可达”或“高需求—低可达”)较为明显,而暴雨内涝会加剧空间失配问题。研究结果可为提升城市洪涝灾害管理与应急响应服务的精细化水平提供科学依据。 |
| 关 键 词： | 消防服务 可达性 E2SFCA 暴雨内涝 上海 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-02-25 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021-05-17 |
Fine-resolution evaluation of urban fire service accessibility under the impact of a 100-year pluvial flood |
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| LI Rui,WANG Jun,LI Mengya.Fine-resolution evaluation of urban fire service accessibility under the impact of a 100-year pluvial flood[J].Progress in Geography,2022,41(1):143-156. | |
| Authors: | LI Rui WANG Jun LI Mengya |
| Institution: | 1. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science of Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China 2. School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China 3. Research Center for Urban Public Security, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China |
| Abstract: | Taking the central urban area of Shanghai Municipality as the study area and using the enhanced two-step floating catchment area method (E2SFCA), this study evaluated the accessibility of urban fire service (UFS) under the impact of a 100-year pluvial flood, which can cause extensive road closures. A high-resolution hydrodynamic model (FloodMap-HydroInundation2D) was used to produce flood scenarios at very fine spatiotemporal scales. The results show that: 1) Under the flood scenario, the most serious flood extent (water depth > 50 cm) totals about 1.5 km2 and may cause 471 road closures (accounting for 5.11% of the entire road length). Flooding on the west side of the Huangpu River is slightly more severe than the east. 2) The spatial distributions of UFS accessibility are not the same at different time periods of the day, but they show a very similar pattern that the accessibility decreases from both sides of the Huangpu River to the northwest and the southeast peripheral areas. 3) Compared with normal weather situation, the number of inaccessible spatial units (250 m × 250 m) at the night, morning peak, nonpeak daytime, and evening peak hours increases by 36.32%, 35.89%, 39.07% and 32.01% respectively under the flooding scenario. During the entire process of the pluvial flood event (120 min), both the maximum number of inaccessible units and the most significant spatial variance emerge at the second phase of the rain peak (30-45 min). 4) Urban fire service accessibility displays significant spatial agglomeration characteristics under both the normal and the flooding scenarios. The High-High clusters are mainly located along the two sides of the Huangpu River and the western peripheral areas, while the Low-Low clusters are primarily distributed in the northwest and southwest. Neither the High-Low clusters nor the Low-High clusters are significant. 5) The spatial mismatch of UFS demand and accessibility (low demand-high accessibility or high demand-low accessibility) is evident even under the normal weather situation, and can be further aggravated if a 100-year pluvial flood occurs. These results can provide a scientific support for improving the smart management of pluvial flood disaster and emergency response service in urban areas. |
| Keywords: | urban fire service accessibility E2SFCA pluvial flood Shanghai |
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