| Abstract: | Maritime transportation activity in the Arctic is increasing, which is due to global warming and decline of Arctic sea ice, posing a threat to local atmosphere, marine organisms, etc. From the perspective of ecological protection, potential impact of marine transportation in the Arctic on marine organisms is evaluated using multi-agent system (MAS) simulation through a case of ship-based oil spills. Multiple regression analysis is then used to compare impacts of factors. Considering the interactions between Arctic shipping and Arctic marine organisms and that MAS is shown to be effective to handle such interactions, MAS is used for modeling together with simulation. The biological effects model of Arctic shipping is combined with Arctic maritime transportation model, ship-based oil spill model and oil spreading model. The two indicators of environmental impact assessment are loss rate of Arctic marine organisms within the oiled area (the proportion of the population within the oiled area that gets into contact directly with the oil spills) and oil area. The results show that, taking Arctic Northeast Passage as an example, when vessel traffic in the Arctic is low, oil spill accidents caused by tankers affects 1. 1%~1. 4% of Arctic marine organisms during navigation period. The loss rate can rise to 2. 1%~2. 7% with doubled vessel traffic. It also shows that oil life days have the greatest impact on the loss of Arctic marine organisms, followed by navigation period. Arctic vessel traffic ranks third among all factors. Oil types come last. The variation of loss rate of Arctic marine organisms under different oil types is mainly due to the difference in oil area. The results are expected to help evaluate the impact of Arctic shipping on Arctic marine environment and improve the understanding of emergency preparedness and response of maritime accidents in the Arctic. © 2023 World Regional Studies. All rights reserved. |
