| 开发克拉运河的VRTS分析及启示 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘会远,金凤君,杜德斌,周启蕾,张正峰.开发克拉运河的VRTS分析及启示[J].世界地理研究,2016(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘会远 金凤君 杜德斌 周启蕾 张正峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 深圳大学区域经济研究所,深圳,518060;2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100010;3. 华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院,上海,200062;4. 深圳大学经济学院,深圳,518060 |
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| 摘 要： | 在"一带一路"与"两洋战略"背景下,基于各种目标的战略与工程被大量提出,并进行了论证。其中关于开发克拉运河的提议,被认为具有破解"马六甲困局"的重大意义。对此,本文运用VRTS分析法,从战略价值、战略风险和开发时机、开发(时序)策略四方面进行综合分析,指出该提议存在战略价值高估、战略风险低估,以及战略时机误判和战略时序安排不够合理等问题,建议暂时搁置,并探索其他可行替代方案。本文关于开发克拉运河的分析,对于其他战略项目论证也有一定参考意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 克拉运河 马六甲困局 VRTS分析 |
Enlightments and the VRTS analysis on the Kra Canal development |
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| Abstract: | Under the background of B & R and the Pacific & Indian Ocean Strategies, all kinds of strategy has been proposed. And the suggestions for developing the Kra Canal, were thought to be very important for China to break the Malacca dilemma. However, this paper discussed the construction of Kra Canal from the perspective of strategic value, risk, timing and so on, pointed out that the value has been overestimated, the strategic risk has been undervalued. Then, the article suggested that China should consider the timing and the scheduling carefully, and prepare to give up the plan of building Kra Canal and think about the alternative solutions. And finally, we put forward some suggestions on other large projects, too. |
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| Keywords: | Kra Canal Malacca dilemma VRTS analysis |
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