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| 地缘政治视角下中亚“颜色革命”易发程度分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 李希雅,王礼茂.地缘政治视角下中亚“颜色革命”易发程度分析[J].世界地理研究,2019,28(6):42-49. |
| 作者姓名： | 李希雅 王礼茂 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 西南大学2. 中科院地理所 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41971163);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20010202);科技部重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602800) |
| 摘 要： | 基于地缘政治视角，分析本世纪初发生在原苏联地区“颜色革命”的诱发因素，认为美国根据其地缘战略格局对“颜色革命”发生地存在一定程度的主观选择性，国家内部经济、政治、社会等层面的矛盾也同样作为发生背景。在中亚地缘格局动态分析的基础上，结合中亚五国形势，从时间和空间双重维度对中亚地区未来发生“颜色革命”的可能性进行识别与评判，得出1) 整体来看，中亚近期内爆发“颜色革命”可能性较小，但从长远来看不能掉以轻心。2)土、乌未来稳定可期，塔、吉、哈需谨防“颜色革命”卷土重来。 |
| 关 键 词： | “颜色革命” 中亚地区 影响因素 可能性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-08-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018-10-03 |
An analysis of the susceptibility of color revolution in Central Asia from a geopolitical perspective |
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| Xiya LI,Limao WANG.An analysis of the susceptibility of color revolution in Central Asia from a geopolitical perspective[J].World Regional Studies,2019,28(6):42-49. | |
| Authors: | Xiya LI Limao WANG |
| Institution: | Institute for Innovation and Strategic Studies, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China School of Urban and Regional Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
| Abstract: | Based on the geopolitical perspective, this thesis analyzes the factors of the "color revolution" that occurred in the former Soviet Union at the beginning of this century, and deems that the United States had a certain degree of subjective selectivity for the "color revolution" in accordance with its geostrategic pattern. Domestic economic, political and social contradictions are also the background of the "color revolution". Based on the dynamic analysis of the geopolitical pattern of Central Asia and combined with the situation of the five Central Asian countries, the dual dimensions of time and space are used to evaluate the possibility of the future "color revolution" in Central Asia. We draw two conclusions from the analysis:(1) The likelihood of a "color revolution" in Central Asia is relatively low in the short term, but there is possibility in the long run.(2)Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are likely to be stable in the future. Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan should be alert to the outbreak of the "color revolution". |
| Keywords: | color revolution Central Asia geopolitical perspective America 'One Road & One Belt' Initiative |
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