Mapping Ecotone Movements: Holocene Dynamics of the Forest Tension Zone in Central Lower Michigan,Usa |
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| Abstract: | This paper presents a novel method for detecting and mapping movements of ecotone boundaries, over both time and space, using existing fossil pollen data. The method combines existing statistical techniques, including discriminant analysis and spatial interpolation, to generate statistically robust maps of ecotone boundaries over time. This method was applied to provide a comprehensive vegetative history of the forest tension zone in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan during the last 10,000 years. Pollen data for nine lakes in the Lower Peninsula were analyzed with discriminant analysis and spatially interpolated with inverse distance weighted to track ecotone movements of the forest tension zone. The forest tension zone has been in existence over the last 10,000 years and has been highly variable over space and time, with at least three major latitudinal shifts, spanning 320 km and 6° of latitude, as well as several less pronounced shifts. These shifts occurred primarily in response to millennial-scale oscillations in climate such as the warmer and dryer conditions associated with the mid-Holocene. A slighter shift was evident in association with the cooler and drier conditions of the Little Ice Age (600-100 cal yr BP). This research demonstrates the sensitivity of Great Lakes forest communities to Holocene climate change and suggests a similar sensitivity of future ecotone dynamics in response to modern global warming. |
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| Keywords: | climate change ecotone discriminant analysis forest tension zone Little Ice Age Michigan vegetation zone index |
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