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| 温室气体强迫与东亚亚热带季风演变耦合效应及动力机制研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 侯立春,林振山,何亮.温室气体强迫与东亚亚热带季风演变耦合效应及动力机制研究[J].地理科学,2018,38(1):151-160. |
| 作者姓名： | 侯立春 林振山 何亮 |
| 作者单位： | 1.南京师范大学地理科学学院环境与生态建模研究室,江苏 南京210023 2.江西上饶师范学院历史地理与旅游学院,江西 上饶 334001 3.南京师范大学虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室,江苏 南京210023 4.江苏省地理环境演化国家重点实验室培育建设点,江苏 南京210023 5.江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,江苏 南京210023 6.国家气象中心, 北京100081 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（41173093,31470519）、江苏省自然科学基金项目（BK20131399)、江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目资助 |
| 摘 要： | 基于主要温室气体（CO2、CH4和N2O）强迫因子和石笋δ18О观测资料（1~2002 年）,分别利用关联性耦合模型和非线性统计-动力学方法,分析温室气体强迫与东亚亚热带季风演变耦合度的时序规律和定量反演模拟温室气体强迫对近2 000 a东亚亚热带季风演变影响的非线性趋势和相对贡献。研究发现：① 温室气体与季风演变耦合度的高低对应季风的强弱变化,即两者耦合作用越强,东亚亚热带季风越强;反之,两者耦合强度越小,东亚亚热带季风越弱;耦合度峰谷值对应季风极强降水和极端干旱时段。② 时序演变规律为：N2O和CO2相互作用与季风演变间耦合效应最强,成为东亚亚热带季风演变的主要驱动力。其次,N2O一次项和CO2非线性项对季风演变起主要的负反馈调节机制。③ 时序演变阶段上有所不同：1~180年,CH4因子对季风演变主要起负反馈调节机制;180~1760年和1760~2002年,对季风演变起主要的驱动和调节机制分别为CO2因子和N2O因子;但1900年后N2O和CO2相互作用与季风演变的耦合驱动效应近百年来明显增强,耦合度在中等-较强（或极强）之间来回波动转换,耦合作用明显增强,在耦合度由较强（或极强）转弱至中等时,东亚亚热带季风也随之减弱。 |
| 关 键 词： | 温室气体 东亚亚热带季风演变 统计动力反演 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017-01-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017-04-02 |
Coupling Effect and Dynamic Mechanism of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and East Asian Subtropical Monsoon Evolution |
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| Lichun Hou,Zhenshan Lin,Liang He.Coupling Effect and Dynamic Mechanism of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and East Asian Subtropical Monsoon Evolution[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2018,38(1):151-160. | |
| Authors: | Lichun Hou Zhenshan Lin Liang He |
| Abstract: | Based on the observed data of the main greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O) and stalagmites δ18О (1-2002), the correlation coupling model was used to analyze the coupling degree temporal variation rule of greenhouse gas forcing and the East Asian monsoon,and the nonlinear statistical-dynamics method was used to simulate the nonlinear trend and relative contribution of greenhouse gas forcing to the East Asian subtropical monsoon evolution over the last two millenniums, which provide the new scientific insights for the assessment of East Asian monsoon evolution. The results show that: 1) The coupling degree of the greenhouse gas and the East Asian monsoon is corresponding to the intensity of the East Asian monsoon, i.e. the stronger the coupling effect is, the stronger the East Asian monsoon is; on the contrary, the weaker coupling strength is, the weaker East Asian monsoon is; the peak-valley value of coupling degree is correlated with extreme strong monsoon precipitation and extreme drought period. 2) The coupling effect betweenthe interaction of N2O and CO2 and the evolution of East Asian monsoon is the strongest, which is the main driving force of East Asian subtropical monsoon evolution. Additionally, N2O and nonlinear term of CO2 plays the main negative feedback regulation mechanism for the monsoon evolution. 3) The temporal evolution phases are different: the CH4 has a negative feedback regulation mechanism on the East Asian monsoon in 1-180. The CO2 and N2O play the main driving and regulating mechanism role in the monsoon evolution in 180-1760 and 1760-2002, respectively. But the coupled driving effect of N2O and CO2 interaction and monsoon evolution is evidently enhanced after 1900. The coupling degree fluctuates back and forth between medium and strong (or very strong), and the coupling effect is obviously enhanced. The East Asian monsoon also weakened when the coupling degree weakened from strong (or stronger) to moderate period. |
| Keywords: | greenhouse gases East Asian subtropical monsoon evolution statistical dynamic inversion |
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