|
|||||
|
|
| 基于统计动力反演的东亚亚热带季风变化驱动机制研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 侯立春,林振山,刘翔,罗虎明.基于统计动力反演的东亚亚热带季风变化驱动机制研究[J].地理科学,2017,37(3):445-454. |
| 作者姓名： | 侯立春 林振山 刘翔 罗虎明 |
| 作者单位： | 1.南京师范大学地理科学学院环境与生态建模研究室,江苏 南京 210023 2.上饶师范学院历史地理与旅游学院,江西 上饶 334001 3.江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,江苏 南京 210023 4.西北农林科技大学理学院,陕西 杨凌 712100 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（31470519）、江苏省自然科学基金项目（BK20131399)和江苏省高校优势学科建设工程项目资助 |
| 摘 要： | 利用观测数据,运用非线性统计-动力学方法,反演系统各因子之间的相互关系,建立了东亚亚热带季风变化的动力方程,为研究东亚亚热带季风的驱动机制提供了量化参考。研究发现：过去2 000 a东亚亚热带季风是多因子通过反馈机制相互作用影响且具有耦合效应的复杂非线性动力系统,其驱动力主要来源于普若岗日冰芯δ18О代表的青藏高原热力作用强迫、太阳黑子活动、ENSO、温室气体单因子CO2和CH4浓度、北极温度和CH4及北极温度与7月太阳辐射的耦合作用机制;反馈调节作用主要源于7月太阳辐射与太阳黑子活动、CH4浓度、中国陆地地表温、CH4与7月太阳辐射以及CO2和CH4的耦合调节作用。并通过动力反演机制推论热带西太平洋对亚热带季风有一定驱动作用,但并不是主要驱动力,即驱动亚热带季风变化的主源地并不在热带西太平洋海区,石笋δ18О指代的也主要是夏季风信息。 |
| 关 键 词： | 东亚亚热带季风 统计动力学反演 驱动机制 和尚洞石笋 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-03-13 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016-04-20 |
Driving Mechanism of East Asian Subtropical Monsoon Changes Based on Statistical-dynamical Inversion Model |
|
| Lichun Hou,Zhenshan Lin,Xiang Liu,Huming Luo.Driving Mechanism of East Asian Subtropical Monsoon Changes Based on Statistical-dynamical Inversion Model[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(3):445-454. | |
| Authors: | Lichun Hou Zhenshan Lin Xiang Liu Huming Luo |
| Institution: | 1.College of Geographical Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, China 2.College of History Geography and Tourism, Shangrao Normal College, Shangrao 334000, Jiangxi, China 3.Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, China 4.College of Sciences, Northwest A & F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China |
| Abstract: | In this article, a nonlinear statistical-dynamical model was used to inverse the interaction between different factors and the dynamic equation of the East Asian subtropical monsoon is established by using the observed data. It provides a quantitative reference for study on the driving mechanism of the subtropical monsoon in East Asia. Research shows that the East-Asian subtropical monsoon is a complex nonlinear dynamical system with multi-factors interacting by feedback mechanisms and coupling effectsover the past two millennia. Its driving force mainly comes from the Tibetan Plateau thermal forcing with the Puruogangri ice core δ18О, sunspot activity, ENSO, greenhouse gas CO2 and CH4 concentrations, and the coupling mechanism between the Arctic temperature and CH4, as well as the Arctic temperature and the solar radiation in July. Feedback regulation mainly comes from the solar radiation in July and sunspot activity, CH4 concentration, land surface temperature in China, the coupling regulation mechanism between the solar radiation in July and CH4, as well as CO2 and CH4. It is inferred that the tropical western Pacific has a certain driving effect on the subtropical monsoon of East Asia through the dynamic inversion mechanism, but not the main driving force, namely the main source that drives the subtropical monsoon changes is not in the sea area of tropical western Pacific, and stalagmite δ18О is mainly referred to the features of summer monsoon information. |
| Keywords: | subtropical monsoon in East Asian statistical-dynamical inversion driving mechanism Heshang Cave stalagmite |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ | |
| 点击此处可从《地理科学》浏览原始摘要信息 | |
| 点击此处可从《地理科学》下载免费的PDF全文 | |