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| 环印度洋地区中国国家风险的综合评估及时空演变分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 曹丹萍,陈小强,宋长青,袁丽华,杜彬.环印度洋地区中国国家风险的综合评估及时空演变分析[J].地理科学,2022,42(6):1044-1054. |
| 作者姓名： | 曹丹萍 陈小强 宋长青 袁丽华 杜彬 |
| 作者单位： | 1.北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室，北京 100875 2.北京师范大学地理科学学部，北京 100875 3.北京师范大学地理数据与应用分析中心，北京 100875 |
| 基金项目： | 第二次青藏高原综合考察研究(2019QZKK0608)项目资助 |
| 摘 要： | 环印度洋地区对中国经济发展与国家安全至关重要，但是环印度洋地区广阔的地域空间和复杂的社会环境，对中国企业投资、商贸往来等构成诸多潜在风险。基于2005—2019年环印度洋地区49个国家的相关数据，从政治、经济、社会和文化4个维度选取22个指标构建环印度洋地区国家风险评价指标体系，利用动态时间规整和地图可视化探究环印度洋地区5个子区域2005—2019年综合风险及各维度风险的时空演变特点。研究结果表明：① 2005—2019年，环印度洋地区国家的综合风险总体呈下降趋势，但区域内国家仍集中在中风险和较高风险等级；② 巴基斯坦?阿富汗?伊拉克?伊朗和埃及?苏丹?厄立特里亚?索马里是区域内2大综合风险高值集聚区，环印度洋地区国家的综合风险呈现较为明显的“区域集聚性”特点；③ 不同地区主导风险不同，政治风险是除澳大利亚以外其他地区的主导风险，也是环印度洋地区目前最主要的风险来源。 |
| 关 键 词： | 环印度洋地区 国家风险 国家风险指标体系 政治风险 动态时间规整 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-07-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021-11-20 |
A Comprehensive Assessment and Spatio-temporal Evolution Analysis of National Risk of China in the Indian Ocean Region |
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| Cao Danping,Chen Xiaoqiang,Song Changqing,Yuan Lihua,Du Bin.A Comprehensive Assessment and Spatio-temporal Evolution Analysis of National Risk of China in the Indian Ocean Region[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2022,42(6):1044-1054. | |
| Authors: | Cao Danping Chen Xiaoqiang Song Changqing Yuan Lihua Du Bin |
| Institution: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China 2. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China 3. Center for Geodata and Analysis, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China |
| Abstract: | The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is crucial to China’s economic development and national security, but the vast regional space and complex social environment surrounding the IOR pose many potential risks to Chinese enterprises’ investment, trade and so on. National risk refers to the possibility of economic loss of investment caused by the domestic political, economic, social and cultural environment of the host country or international political and economic factors in the process of the investor’s international investment activities. Based on the relevant data of 49 countries around the IOR from 2005 to 2019, 22 indicators are selected from four dimensions of politics, economy, society and culture to construct the national risk assessment index system around the IOR, using dynamic time warping and map visualization to explore the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of comprehensive risks in five subregions around the IOR from 2005 to 2019. The results show that: 1) From 2005 to 2019, the comprehensive risk of countries in the IOR showed a declining trend, but the countries in the region are still concentrated in medium risk and higher risk levels. 2) Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iraq-Iran and Egyptian-Sudan-Eritrean-Somalia are the two high value clusters of comprehensive risks in the region. The comprehensive risks of countries around the IOR show obvious ‘regional agglomeration’ characteristics. 3) The dominant risk varies from region to region, political risk is the dominant risk in all regions except Australia and is currently the main source of risk in the IOR. |
| Keywords: | Indian Ocean Region national risk national risk indicator system political risk dynamical time warping |
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