| 丰满流域汛期降水变化特征分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 高峰,孙力,苏丽欣,刘实,沈柏竹.丰满流域汛期降水变化特征分析[J].地理科学,2012(10):1282-1288. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高峰 孙力 苏丽欣 刘实 沈柏竹 |
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| 作者单位： | 吉林省气象科技服务中心;中高纬度环流系统与东亚季风研究开放实验室;吉林省气象科学研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金面上项目(41175083)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用丰满流域水文站1936~2008年降水资料、1948~2008年美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)再分析资料,通过线性趋势分析、小波分析、M-K检验分析和最大熵谱分析对该流域汛期降水量变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:丰满流域汛期降水量与年降水量均呈减少趋势,特别是近20 a和30 a降水量减少较明显,汛期降水量下降趋势倾向值在1989~2008年达到-39.2mm/10a;年降水量下降倾向值在1979~2008年达到-26.5mm/10a,汛期降水量的减少较年降水量减少的明显。汛期6月、7月降水量下降的不明显,8月、9月降水量减少相对明显。最大熵谱分析和Morlet小波分析结果表明,丰满流域汛期降水量的周期变化存在着一个8~9 a左右的降水相对短周期和一个28 a的降水长周期;利用1948~2008年NCEP再分析资料对多雨、少雨的7月、8月200 hPa、700 hPa环流形势场、850 hPa风场进行了分析,以分析流域汛期降水减少的可能原因。丰满流域降水减少的可能原因是汛期影响该流域的台风次数减少、冷涡影响天数的减少,副高偏南、偏西不利于水汽向北输送和南支系统北上的影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 周期 降水 特征 丰满流域 |
The Characteristic Analysis of Precipitation Variation in Fengman Basin |
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| GAO Feng,SUN Li,SU Li-xin,LIU Shi,SHEN Bai-zhu.The Characteristic Analysis of Precipitation Variation in Fengman Basin[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2012(10):1282-1288. |
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| Authors: | GAO Feng SUN Li SU Li-xin LIU Shi SHEN Bai-zhu |
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| Institution: | 2,3(1.Jilin Meteorological Science and Technology Service Center,Changchun,Jilin 130062,China;2.Laboratory of Research for Middle-High Latitude Circulation System and East Asian Monsoon,Changchun,Jilin 130062,China;3.Institute of Meteorological Science of Jilin Province,Changchun,Jilin 130062,China) |
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| Abstract: | By use of the precipitation data from hydrological station at Fengman basin in 1936-2008,as well as the reanalysis data from National Center for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) in 1948-2008,the characteristics associated with the precipitation variation in flood season at this basin were discussed by means of linear trend analysis,wavelet analysis,M-K analysis and maximum entropy spectrum analysis.The results show that,both the total amounts of precipitation at flood season and the whole year are decreased with time in Fengman basin,especially in the recent 20 and 30 years.The precipitation at flood season decreases more than the annual precipitation,for the precipitation decrease trend values in flood season reach-39.2 mm/10a from 1989 to 2008,but those of annual precipitation are only-26.5 mm/10a from 1979 to 2008.The total amounts of precipitation decrease sharply in August and September,while little in June and July during flood season.Results from analysis of maximum entropy spectrum and Morlet wavelet show that,there are two kinds of precipitation cycles in flood season at Fengman basin.One is the relative short cycle with eight to nine years,the other is the long cycle with twenty eight years.In order to study the possible reasons about the decrease trend in flood season at Fengman basin,the circulation fields in 200 hPa and 700 hPa,and the wind fields in 850 hPa were analyzed by use of the NCEP data from 1948 to 2008.It shows that,the main reasons about the decrease trend in flood season at Fengman basin are the co-effects of the reduced amounts of Typhoon and the days of cold vortex in Northeast of China affecting this basin,as well as the unfavorable condition for water vapor conveying northwards as the subtropical high is more southerly and westerly than usual,and the northward movement of the weather systems on the south. |
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| Keywords: | cycle precipitation characteristics Fengman basin |
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