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| 1960~2013年京津冀地区干旱-暴雨-热浪灾害时空聚类特征 | |
| 引用本文： | 李双双,杨赛霓,刘焱序,张东海,刘宪锋.1960~2013年京津冀地区干旱-暴雨-热浪灾害时空聚类特征[J].地理科学,2016,36(1):149-156. |
| 作者姓名： | 李双双 杨赛霓 刘焱序 张东海 刘宪锋 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室 减灾与应急管理研究院, 北京100875 2. 北京大学城市与环境学院 地表过程分析与模拟教育部重点实验室, 北京 100871 3. 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室 资源学院, 北京100875 |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目（2012CB955402）、地表过程模型与模拟创新研究群体科学基金项目（41321001）资助 |
| 摘 要： | 基于京津冀及周边34个气象站点逐日气温、相对湿度和降水数据,辅以Mann-Kendall趋势分析、SatScan时空重排扫描等数理统计方法,对1960~2013年京津冀地区干旱-暴雨-热浪灾害时空聚类特征进行分析。结果表明：① 1960~2013年京津冀地区干旱-暴雨-热浪变化具有阶段性,2000年之前干旱-热浪频次多为负距平,暴雨频次相对较多;2000年后干旱和热浪频次呈上升趋势,暴雨频次呈下降趋势;② 综合考虑多种致灾因子,京津冀地区高致灾因子区集中于东部沿海区和西部太行山地区,低致灾因子区分布于中部平原区;③ 1960~2013年京津冀地区干旱和热浪空间分布具有明显的重叠性,两者空间叠加区主要分布于5个区域：北部沿海区、北部燕山山区、西部太行山区、南部平原区。对于北京、天津、保定等中部平原区的城市而言,其为多灾种叠加的“平静区”,干旱-暴雨-热浪灾害时空群集事件相对较少。 |
| 关 键 词： | 自然灾害 多灾种 时空聚类 京津冀地区 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-11-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015-01-04 |
Spatio-temporal Clustering Characteristics of Drought,Heavy Rain and Hot Waves in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region During 1960-2013 |
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| Shuangshuang Li,Saini Yang,Yanxu Liu,Donghai Zhang,Xianfeng Liu.Spatio-temporal Clustering Characteristics of Drought,Heavy Rain and Hot Waves in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region During 1960-2013[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(1):149-156. | |
| Authors: | Shuangshuang Li Saini Yang Yanxu Liu Donghai Zhang Xianfeng Liu |
| Abstract: | The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013, and new observations have further proved that the warming of the global climate system is unequivocal. The influence of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change can contribute to disaster, and the integrated risk assessment could increase resilience to the potential adverse impacts of climate extremes. Using daily temperature, relative humidity and precipitation data of meteorological stations in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and its surrounding areas, this article attempts to describe spatiotemporal clustering characteristics of drought, heavy rain and heat waves during 1960-2013, based on space-time clustering and other analysis method. The results show that: Before the year of 2000, drought and hot waves presented a negative anomaly, and heavy rain was frequently determined in the study area. After the year of 2000, it showed obviously increasing trend for drought and hot waves, the frequency of heavy rain declined significantly. Spatially, synthesized multi-hazard assessment, the southeast coast and western mountainous area were relatively higher risk than the middle plain. Different periods of drought, heat waves and heavy rain in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region had different coupled pattern. Drought and heat waves were highly overlap in northern coastal areas, northern Yanshan Mountains, western Taihang Mountains and southern plain. As for cities like Beijing, Tianjin and Baoding in the middle plains, it was multi-disasters overlapping low risk region, where spatiotemporal clustering of drought, heavy rain and heat waves were relatively little. The gravity center migration of heat wave, drought and heavy rain showed the counterclockwise of spiral change in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. Before 1980s, the gravity center moved form southwest to northeast coast region; After 1980s, it begun a second counterclockwise migration, drought, heavy rain and heat waves showed the aggregate trend on the middle plain. |
| Keywords: | natural disaster multi-disaster spatio-temporal clustering the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region |
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