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| 黄土高原甘肃区降水变化与气候指数关系 | |
| 引用本文： | 赵一飞,邹欣庆,张勃,张多勇,许鑫王豪.黄土高原甘肃区降水变化与气候指数关系[J].地理科学,2015,35(10):1325-1332. |
| 作者姓名： | 赵一飞 邹欣庆 张勃 张多勇 许鑫王豪 |
| 作者单位： | 1.南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏 南京 210046 2.西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃 兰州 730070 3. 庆阳市荒漠化防治研究中心, 甘肃 庆阳 745000 |
| 基金项目： | 国家基础科学人才培养基金（J1103408）、国家自然基金地区科学基金项目（31460090）和甘肃省科技支撑项目（144fkcm070）共同资助 |
| 摘 要： | 基于黄土高原甘肃区34个气象站1961~2010年的逐日降水资料,结合线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall法和反距离加权插值等方法,对黄土高原甘肃区降水量时空变化进行分析,利用Morlet小波、交叉小波变换和小波相干谱分析其周期特征及其与太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）、厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）指数相关关系。结果表明：研究区年降水量呈下降趋势,变化倾向率为-15.4 mm/10a,特别是20世纪90年代以来降水量下降趋势明显;就季节变化而言,降水量除冬季呈轻微增加外,其他各季均呈减少趋势,其中以秋季减少最为明显,其次为春、夏季。从空间分布来看,年降水量总体呈减少趋势,其东南地区降水量减少幅度高于西北部。研究区降水量存在2~3 a、4.3~5 a的年际振荡周期特征,呈现了同大尺度气候因子相似的变化特征;降水量与两大气候因子存在着多时间尺度的显著相关性,与PDO和ENSO存在5~5.6 a左右共振周期,位相谱月降水量变化位相比PDO和ENSO提前;低能量区降水量与PDO有3~3.5 a年的显著共振周期且接近同位相变化,与ENSO存在0~3 a和3~6 a呈负位相的共振周期。 |
| 关 键 词： | 黄土高原甘肃区 降水量 气候因子 小波分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-03-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014-06-15 |
Precipitation Variation in Association with Climate Indices in Loess Plateau of Gansu Province,Northwest China |
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| Yi-fei ZHAO,Xin-qing ZOU,Bo ZHANG,Duo-yong ZHANG,Xin-wang-hao XU.Precipitation Variation in Association with Climate Indices in Loess Plateau of Gansu Province,Northwest China[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(10):1325-1332. | |
| Authors: | Yi-fei ZHAO Xin-qing ZOU Bo ZHANG Duo-yong ZHANG Xin-wang-hao XU |
| Institution: | 1.School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210046,China 2. College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China 3.Desertification Prevention and Control Research Center of Qingyang City, Qingyang, Gansu 745000, China |
| Abstract: | Based on the daily precipitation data of 30 stations in Loess Plateau of Gansu Province from 1961 to 2010, the spatial and temporal changes of precipitation were analyzed by the methods of liner trend, Mann - Kendall method and inverse distance weighted interpolation methods, Mann-Kendall method and IDW. analyzed the cycle characteristics and the relationship between the precipitation and PDO and ENSO by the continuous wavelet transform, cross wavelet and wavelet coherence techniques．Then, based on the above analysis, the future trends of precipitation were forecast by the method of rescaled range analysis. The results indicated that the average annual rainfall decreased by -1.54 mm per year, especially since the 1990s precipitation decrease obviously. In terms of season, In addition to winter precipitation showed a slight increase, the other quarter showed a decreasing trend, which decreased the most in autumn, followed by spring, summer. Spatial distribution, annual precipitation decreased in most areas in the Loess Plateau of Gansu Province, decrease in precipitation in the southeast region above the northwest. Precipitation had 2-3 year, 4.3-5 year oscillation circles, which was similar to the pattern of the two large-climate indices. There were the common patterns of 5-5.6 year oscillation circles between precipitation and PDO, ENSO, phase spectrum month precipitation change compared to the PDO and ENSO in advance. Precipitation had 3-3.5 year significant resonance circles with PDO, and close to the same phase shift, as well as has 0-3 year and 3-6 year showed a negative phase of the resonance cycles with ENSO. The Hurst indices of the precipitation are all bigger than 0.5 for all the stations, the fractal dimensions, meanwhile, are all less than 1.5, which indicate that precipitation would keep the same trend with the past in a period of time in the future. |
| Keywords: | Loess Plateau in Gansu Province precipitation climate indices wavelet analysis |
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