Verification of the motion fields over Southeast Asia by the Florida State University (FSU) superensemble forecast |
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| Authors: | Mastura Mahmud Robert S Ross |
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| Institution: | Geography Programme, Centre for Social Development and Environmental Studies, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia; Department of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA |
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| Abstract: | The Florida State University (FSU) multimodel superensemble forecast is evaluated against several other operational weather models for the Southeast Asia region. The superensemble technique has demonstrated its exceptional skills in forecasting precipitation, motion and mass fields compared to either individual global operational or ensemble mean forecasts. The motion field investigation for the season of 2001 reveals that the superensemble forecasts are closer to the observed data compared to the other global member operational models through its low systematic errors at the 850 hPa level. The FSU multimodel superensemble forecasts exhibit the lowest root mean square errors (RSMEs), the highest correlation against the best observed data and the lowest systematic errors compared to the other operational model members. These forecasts have the potential to provide better daily weather predictions over the Southeast Asia region, particularly during the early northeast monsoon that often causes heavy rainfall in the equatorial part of the Southeast Asia region. |
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| Keywords: | superensemble multimodel Southeast Asia Peninsular Malaysia systematic errors of winds weather prediction |
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