| 基于灰色自记忆模型的城市月需水量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 段海妮,莫淑红,沈冰,韩海军,张高锋,王积科.基于灰色自记忆模型的城市月需水量预测[J].干旱区地理,2011(4):591-595. |
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| 作者姓名： | 段海妮 莫淑红 沈冰 韩海军 张高锋 王积科 |
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| 作者单位： | 西安理工大学西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室;西安市水务局;宝鸡市水利局水资源处; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(50779052); 陕西省教育厅重点实验室研究计划(08JZ55); 陕西省自然科学基础研究计划(2010JM5001) |
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| 摘 要： | 建立了以灰色微分方程为动力核的自记忆模型,并首次应用于城市月需水量预测.先将具有季节性特征的实测历史数据通过季节指数法获得相对平滑的序列,再用所建灰色自记忆模型进行模拟、预测.研究表明,灰色自记忆模型建模方法简单且模拟和预测精度较为满意,平均相对误差为5.74％,灰色GM(1,1)模型预测平均相对误差是8.77％,其精...
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| 关 键 词： | 月需水量 灰色理论 自记忆方程 |
Forecasting monthly city water demand with gray self-memory model |
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| DUAN Hai-ni,MO Shu-hong,SHEN Bing,HAN Hai-jun,ZHANG Gao-feng,WANG Ji-ke.Forecasting monthly city water demand with gray self-memory model[J].Arid Land Geography,2011(4):591-595. |
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| Authors: | DUAN Hai-ni MO Shu-hong SHEN Bing HAN Hai-jun ZHANG Gao-feng WANG Ji-ke |
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| Institution: | DUAN Hai-ni1,MO Shu-hong1,SHEN Bing1,HAN Hai-jun1,ZHANG Gao-feng2,WANG Ji-ke3 (1 Xi'an University of Technology,Key Lab of North-West Water Resources and Environment Ecology,Xi'an 710048,Shaanxi,China,2 Xi'an Bureau of Water Resources,Xi'an 710002,3 Baoji Bureau of Water Resources,Baoji 721000,China) |
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| Abstract: | With a gray differential equation as its core,the gray-self memory model is widely used in hydro-meteorologic prediction,when the phenomena,such as river runoff,precipitation,evaporation etc.have long-term observed data series.In this study it is applied to simulate and predict the urban water demand for the first time.Baoji is the second large city of Shaanxi Province facing the water shortage blocking its social and economic development.In order to realize the rational and efficient use of limited water r... |
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| Keywords: | monthly water demand gray theory self-memory equation |
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