| 宁夏一次春季突发寒潮极值暴雪过程的等熵位涡分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡亮帆,胡文东,谷思雨,王蕾,王金兰.宁夏一次春季突发寒潮极值暴雪过程的等熵位涡分析[J].干旱区地理,2019,42(2):271-279. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡亮帆 胡文东 谷思雨 王蕾 王金兰 |
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| 作者单位： | 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川成都,610225;成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川成都610225;软件自动生成与智能服务四川省重点实验室,四川成都610225;高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,四川 成都610225;成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川成都610225;黑龙江省气象服务中心,黑龙江哈尔滨150030;河南省新乡市气象局,河南新乡,453000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点项目（91644226）；四川省应用基础研究重点项目（2018JY0056）；科技部公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201206005）；中国气象局-成都信息工程大学气象软件工程联合研究中心项目(2016102) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用常规观测、地面加密站逐时观测和欧洲中期数值预报中心0.125 °×0.125 °逐6 h再分析资料，从天气系统演变、冷空气路径、灾害性天气预报指标等方面，利用315K等熵位涡对2016年4月2～3日宁夏突发寒潮极值暴雪过程进行了诊断分析。结果表明：（1）此次过程属于高空小槽东移合并型，地面有冷高压分裂且主体快速南下，并有锋面相配合，导致强冷空气入侵和锋后降雪。（2）前期环流形势稳定，后期天气系统突变，常规气象资料难以预报，315K等熵位涡图可作为短时、局地的春季寒潮降雪过程的有效分析和预报工具。（3）等熵位涡清楚地示踪冷空气的来源和传播路径：咸海区域对流层顶冷空气东移南扩与青藏高原对流层中层冷空气合并加强，且新地岛平流层下部的冷空气在前期缓慢东移后，自贝加尔湖加速南下对其补充引发寒潮。（4）等熵位涡异常大值可定量、清晰地表述关键影响系统西风带小槽的演变，具有更好的指示意义。（5）等熵位涡高值区随时间变化与寒潮演变一致，可提前6 h指示冷空气活动，且等熵位涡大于1.0 PVU区域与寒潮及降雪落区一致，大于0.8 PVU区域与强降温区域一致，可作为精细定量预报的重要指标。
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| 关 键 词： | 宁夏 寒潮暴雪 等熵位涡 机制分析 预报指标 |
Isentropic potential vorticity for a sudden cold wave and extreme snowstorm process in spring 2016 in Ningxia |
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| HU Liangfan,HU Wendong,GU Siyu,WANG Lei,WANG Jinlan.Isentropic potential vorticity for a sudden cold wave and extreme snowstorm process in spring 2016 in Ningxia[J].Arid Land Geography,2019,42(2):271-279. |
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| Authors: | HU Liangfan HU Wendong GU Siyu WANG Lei WANG Jinlan |
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| Abstract: | Using the conventional meteorological observation data, the hourly observation data from the automatic meteorological station and the ECWMF 6-hourly reanalysis data with the resolution of 0.125 °×0.125 °, based on comprehensive diagnosis analysis methods, a short lifespan process of a cold wave and record-breaking snowstorm in Ningxia Province, China from April 2nd to April 3rd, 2016 was investigated in terms of tempo-spatial distribution characteristics of disasters, atmospheric circulation change, weather systems evolution, the sources and paths of cold airs , outbreak mechanism of cold wave and forecast indicators by using potential vorticity on the isentropic surface of 315 K. The results indicate that under the stable circulation background, the small trough of westerly belt on 500 hPa was moved eastward from the north side of the Gansu Corridor, catching up with the larger trough on the southeast side and then merged and reinforced. The northwesterly strong cold air behind the trough invaded Ningxia along with the cold air from the south of Lake Baikal. The surface cold anticyclone was split and moved southward rapidly with cold front, leading to the outbreak of cold wave and heavy snowstorm behind the cold front. This process was classified as the type of upper air small trough moving eastward and merging, which was characterized by the suddenness, locality, short duration (about 12 hours) and strong disasters. It is difficult to predict accurately by using conventional observation data because of the delay of observational data obtained in forecasting, the difficulty in tracing the evolution of the trough in the height fields and the inadequate tempo-spatial resolution of existing air sounding data. However, The isentropic potential vorticity（IPV）can clearly trace the source and path of cold air. The analysis of IPV indicated that, the cold air on top of the troposphere from Aral Sea was moved southeasterly, then merged with the cold air in the mesosphere of the troposphere in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and thus enhanced. The cold air in the bottom of the stratosphere from east of Novaya Zemlya was moved eastward slowly, then turned southward from Lake Baikal at a higher speed and supplementing the direct cold air mentioned above, and the interaction of the two caused the cold wave in Ningxia. The IPV also represented the upper atmospheric circulation during the cold wave. The areas of great abnormal values of IPV indicated the evolution of small trough quantitatively and clearly which had better forecast significance than the conventional meteorological data. The temporal evolution of IPV coincided with the stages of cold wave's initiation, break-out, recession and ending, and the cold air activity can be predicted 6 hours ahead. From the space perspective, the zones of the cold wave and the snowfall shared the identical distribution with the areas with values above 1.0 PVU, and the zones having severe temperature drop were those with the value being larger than 0.8 PVU. This study indicated that the 315K isentropic potential vorticity can be used as an effective tool for analyzing and predicting the sudden cold wave and extreme snowstorm process in spring，and also as a key forecast indicator for fine quantitative forecast in Ningxia. More researches on the catastrophic weather events should be conducted in order to predict the threshold of IPV more accurately. |
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| Keywords: | Ningxia cold wave and heavy snow isentropic potential vorticity mechanism analysis forecast indicator |
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