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| 天山乌一号冰川物质平衡特征的统计分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 鞠远江,魏遐,刘耕年.天山乌一号冰川物质平衡特征的统计分析[J].干旱区地理,2006,29(1):76-80. |
| 作者姓名： | 鞠远江 魏遐 刘耕年 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国矿业大学资源学院,江苏,徐州,221008 2. 浙江财经学院工商管理学院,浙江,杭州,310012;北京大学环境学院,北京,100871 3. 北京大学环境学院,北京,100871 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金 , 中国矿业大学校科研和教改项目 |
| 摘 要： | 利用天山乌鲁木齐河源一号冰川物质平衡的多年观测资料,通过数学统计方法提取主成分,获得影响该冰川物质平衡的主要因素,通过成分矩阵的旋转获得表示冰川物质平衡特征的两个主因子,其中第一主因子为影响冰川物质平衡的常年因子,代表该冰川的多年持续变化方向与趋势,第二主因子为影响冰川物质平衡的年际因子,代表该冰川在平衡年内的物质平衡变化特征。常年因子的持续下降反映了冰川持续后退的现实,年际因子在上世纪80年代中期以后突然强劲上升,实际上是冰川物质平衡水平提高,平衡年内积累量和消融量都增加的表现,清晰地指示了西北地区气候由暖干向暖湿的转型。常年因子是冰川物质平衡变化的主导因子,控制了冰川变化的方向。常年因子具有较好的周期性,以6年周期最为明显,但其形成原因尚不明。年际因子周期性不明显,但可以看出其周期与太阳黑子变化具有相关性,同时受到常年因子的影响。 |
| 关 键 词： | 一号冰川 物质平衡 乌鲁木齐河河源 主成分分析 天山山脉 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-6060（2006）01-0076-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-08-22 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-11-16 |
Statistics and analysis on the mass balance of Glacier No.1 at the headwaters of the Urumqi River in the Tianshan Mountains |
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| JU Yuan-jiang,WEI Xia,LIU Geng-nian.Statistics and analysis on the mass balance of Glacier No.1 at the headwaters of the Urumqi River in the Tianshan Mountains[J].Arid Land Geography,2006,29(1):76-80. | |
| Authors: | JU Yuan-jiang WEI Xia LIU Geng-nian |
| Abstract: | Based on the observation data since the 1960s of Glacier No.1 at the headwaters of the Urumqi River,the mathematics statistical methods are used in this paper to derive the principal components of the main factors affecting the mass balance of the glacier,and two principal factors affecting the mass balance of the glacier are also derived,among them the first principal factor is the perennial factor reflecting the long-term change trend of the glacier,and the second one is the annual factor reflecting the annual mass balance of the glacier.The analyzed result of the perennial factor reveals that the glacier is in a continuous shrinkage.The analyzed result of the annual factor reveals that the glacier fluctuated slightly before 1975 but violently during the period from 1976 to 1986.The annual factor has been sharply increased since the mid-1980s,which reveals that both the glacial accumulation and melt have been significantly increased,that is the climate change in northwest China has shifted from the warming-drying pattern towards the warming-wetting pattern since the mid-1980s.The fluctuation of the perennial factor is periodical,especially the 6-year periodical change is significant,its causes,however,are not understood yet.The periodicity of the annual factor is not so significant,and it is considered that the fluctuation of the annual factor is related to the change of sunspots and affected by the perennial factor. |
| Keywords: | Glacier No 1 mass balance headwaters of the Urumqi River principle component analysis the Tianshan Mountains |
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