| 基于模糊综合评价模型的中亚水资源开发潜力评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 王旋旋,陈亚宁,李稚,方功焕,王非,张姣优.基于模糊综合评价模型的中亚水资源开发潜力评估[J].干旱区地理,2020,43(1):126-134. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王旋旋 陈亚宁 李稚 方功焕 王非 张姣优 |
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| 作者单位： | 1 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所/荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室，新疆乌鲁木齐830011；
2 中国科学院大学，北京100049 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（A类）资助（XDA19030204） |
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| 摘 要： | 定量评估水资源开发潜力对掌握区域水资源开发现状、提高水资源利用率具有重要意义。通过选取水资源利用率、灌溉率、地表水控制率、人均占有水量、重复利用率、生活用水定额、供水量模数、生态环境用水率等8个重要指标，借助模糊综合评价模型对中亚五国水资源开发潜力进行定量分析。结果表明：中亚地区整体水资源开发利用处于中级阶段，开发潜力综合评分值为0.502 7，表明开发潜力较大。其中，哈萨克斯坦水资源综合评分值最高，为0.712 4，有很大的开发潜力，但要注意摒弃不合理的水资源利用方式；吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦综合评分值分别为0.591 1、0.488 7，有较大的开发潜力，但应注意由广度开发逐渐向深度开发转变。下游国家土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦处于开发利用的高级阶段，综合评分值分别为0.352 6、0.315 0，水资源开发潜力较小。今后应注意发展节水型经济，注重水资源综合管理。
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| 关 键 词： | 水资源开发潜力 模糊综合评价模型 中亚五国 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-03-14 |
Assessment of the development potential of water resources in Central Asia based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model |
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| WANG Xuan-xuan,CHEN Ya-ning,LI Zhi,FANG Gong-huan,WANG Fei,ZHANG Jiao-you.Assessment of the development potential of water resources in Central Asia based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model[J].Arid Land Geography,2020,43(1):126-134. |
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| Authors: | WANG Xuan-xuan CHEN Ya-ning LI Zhi FANG Gong-huan WANG Fei ZHANG Jiao-you |
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| Institution: | 1
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology
and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China;2.University of Chinese
Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China |
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| Abstract: | Central Asia is located in
the center of Eurasia, with a large number
of transboundary rivers, and the conflicts in
using water resources are aggravating under the dual influence of climate
change and human activities. The problem of water
resources and ecological environment in this region has always been a hot topic
in the academic research. The quantitative
assessment of the development and utilization potential of water resources in
the region is of great significance for understanding the current status of
water resources and improving the utilization rate of water resources. Based on the statistics of water resources from 1997
to 2014,we selected eight indicators, including utilization rate of water resource, irrigation ratio of arable land, control rate of surface water, per capita water supply, recycling rate of water resource, live use water quota, water supply module, and ecological water use ratio to establish an evaluation
index system for the water resources, then quantitatively analyzed the development potential
of water resources for five countries in Central Asia by using fuzzy
comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that
the development and utilization of water resources in Central Asia is in the
intermediate stage, and the evaluated
value is comparatively great (0.502 7),which indicates a great exploitation
potential of water resources. Among these five
countries, Kazakhstan has the
highest evaluated value (0.712 4), which indicates the greatest exploitation potential of
water resources, but unreasonable use
of water should be abandoned. The evaluated values
of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are 0.591 1 and 0.488 7 respectively, which indicates a large exploitation potential of
water resources, but these two
countries should be transformed from breadth development to deep development
gradually. The development and
utilization of water resources in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are all in the
advanced stage, and the evaluated
values are 0.352 6 and 0.315 0 respectively, which indicates a least exploitation potential of
water resources. In the future, these two countries should develop water-saving economy, and pay attention to the integrated management of
water resources. All these conclusions
provide scientific basis and decision support for the sustainable utilization
of water resources in Central Asia. |
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| Keywords: | development potential of water resources fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model the five Central Asian countries |
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