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| 基于水热平衡原理的塔里木河下游绿洲适宜规模分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 曹志超,王新平,李卫红,叶朝霞,郭斌.基于水热平衡原理的塔里木河下游绿洲适宜规模分析[J].干旱区地理,2012,35(5):806-814. |
| 作者姓名： | 曹志超 王新平 李卫红 叶朝霞 郭斌 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830011;中国科学院研究生院,北京10049 2. 塔里木河流域管理局,新疆库尔勒,841000 3. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 |
| 基金项目： | "国家重点基础研究发展计划"课题，中科院知识创新工程重要方向项目，西部人才培养计划西部博士专项领域前沿项目 |
| 摘 要： | 结合近40 a水文气象资料，基于水热平衡原理，构建模型，分析和讨论了20世纪70、80、90年代以及2000年以来塔里木河下游绿洲适宜规模与耕地面积，并结合相应不同时期的遥感影像，对各时期实际绿洲规模进行了比较。结果表明：近40 a来，塔里木河下游绿洲适宜规模和耕地规模趋于收缩，但2000年以后有所扩大；20世纪80年代的绿洲耕地面积与计算得出的适宜耕地规模基本平衡，之后严重超出绿洲承载能力，2009年超出幅度达1.22×104 hm2；耕地面积过大已导致塔里木河下游绿洲进入了不稳定状态，当前应采取措施适度缩小绿洲规模，并及时有效地控制耕地面积。 |
| 关 键 词： | 绿洲适宜规模 水热平衡 模型分析 塔里木河下游 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011-11-12; |
Suitable scale for oasis in lower reaches of Tarim River |
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| CAO Zhi-chao , WANG Xin-ping , LI Wei-hong , YE Zhao-xia , GUO Bin.Suitable scale for oasis in lower reaches of Tarim River[J].Arid Land Geography,2012,35(5):806-814. | |
| Authors: | CAO Zhi-chao WANG Xin-ping LI Wei-hong YE Zhao-xia GUO Bin |
| Institution: | 1 State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology，Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China； 2 Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100049，China; 3 Administration Bureau of Tarim River Basin, Korla 841000, Xinjiang, China |
| Abstract: | Based on the hydrologic and meteorological data of oasis of the lower reaches of the Tarim River in recent 40 years, using Hargreaves method and water energy budget principle, the suitable oasis scale and cultivated area of 1970s,1980s,1990s and years since 2000 were discussed. Actual oasis size of each period was compared based on remote sensing image interpretation. The results show that: in the past 40 years, the reference crop evapotransporation of the lower reaches of the Tarim Rive had an increasing trend; it was 1 221 mm in the 1970s, but reached 1 299 mm during the period from 2000 to 2008. The suitable scale of oasis and cultivated area tended to shrink in the past 40 years, but it slightly expanded recently, the suitable scales of oasis were 12.77×104 hm2, 9.89×104 hm2, 8.05×104 hm2 and 9.32×104 hm2 during the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000-2008, simultaneously, the cultivated area were 3.83×104 hm2, 2.97×104 hm2, 2.41×104 hm2, 2.79×104 hm2 in each period. They kept step with the change of water volume in the lower reaches of the Tarim River. As a whole, the actual size of the oasis tended to lessen, while the actual cultivated area remain increasing significantly. In the 1980s, the actual cultivated area kept balance with suitable cultivated size, but it seriously exceeded oasis carrying capacity later. Actual cultivated area was 1.22×104 hm2 larger than the suitable cultivated size in 2009. According to the research on the oasis stability, the oasis size and the proportion of cultivated area were more suitable in the 1970s and 1980s, However, the oasis of the lower reaches of the Tarim Rive turned to unstable state since the 1990s because of the oversize cultivated area, and it then showed accelerated decline. In order to slowdown the degradation speed of the oasis in the lower reaches of the Tarim Rive and keep its sustainable development, it is necessary to effectively control cultivated areas and properly lessen oasis size. |
| Keywords: | suitable scale of oasis water and energy budget principle model analysis the lower reaches of Tarim River |
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