| 全球变化与浙江洪水大势 |
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| 引用本文： | 冯利华.全球变化与浙江洪水大势[J].热带地理,1999,19(1):62-66. |
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| 作者姓名： | 冯利华 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江师范大学地理系,金华市,321004 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据历史和实测资料分析，对于全球变化下浙江近期洪水的运作大势，可得如下几点认识：（１）在未来的十几年之内，浙江省将处在枯水年占优势的阶段，但全球变化将使浙江洪水的时空变化更为剧烈，使沿海地区的洪水灾害更为严重。（２）由于浙江省的大中洪水一般都集中在太阳黑子活动的峰谷年前后，而近期的２００４年和２００９年分别是黑子活动第２３周期的峰年和谷年，因此这两年前后必须予以足够的重视。（３）浙江洪水对厄尔尼诺现象具有较好的响应，因此厄尔尼诺同年或次年也必须引起足够的重视。（４）根据浙江历史上的台风重灾年资料，利用灰色灾变预测分析，可得浙江未来第一、第二和第三个台风重灾年分别为２００１、２００４和２００８年，其中后两个台风重灾年与太阳黑子活动第２３周期的峰年和谷年是大致吻合的。（５）植被破坏、河道设障等人类活动会产生一定的增灾效应，从而使浙江未来的洪水灾害更为严重。
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| 关 键 词： | 洪水 自然演变趋势 全球变化 人类活动 运作大势 |
GLOBAL CHANGE AND THE TENDENCY OF FLOOD INZHEJIANG |
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| Feng Lihua.GLOBAL CHANGE AND THE TENDENCY OF FLOOD INZHEJIANG[J].Tropical Geography,1999,19(1):62-66. |
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| Authors: | Feng Lihua |
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| Abstract: | From the analysis of the historical and measured data, some tendencies of flood in Zhejiang in the global change are predicted: 1)low water year will take the upper hand in ten years or more, the global change will make the temporal and spatial changes of flood in Zhejiang more violent, and the flood disasters in coast area more serious. 2)The large and moderate floods in Zhejiang Province usually appear near the peak and valley year of sunspot activity. 2004 and 2009 will be,respectively , the peak and valley year of the 23th period of sunspot activity, great attention should be paid to the situation around the two years.3) Great importance also should be attached to the year of El Nino or the next since the Zhejiang floods obviously respond to EL Nino. 4)According to the historical data of serious typhoon disasters in Zhejiang and the analysis of grey catastrophic forecast, it is known that the first, second and third years of serious typhoon disasters in Zhejiang will appear in 2001, 2004 and 2008, and the latter two years are approximately in conformity with the peak and valley years of the 23th period of sunspot activity. 5) Human activities such as destroying vegetation and blocking rivers would strengthen the flood disasters in Zhejiang in the future. |
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| Keywords: | Flood Trend of natural evolution Global change Human activity |
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