| 气候变化情景下油茶生长的适宜性特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 王小军,刘光旭,肖彤.气候变化情景下油茶生长的适宜性特征[J].热带地理,2020,40(5):868-880. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王小军 刘光旭 肖彤 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.华南师范大学 地理科学学院，广州 510631;2.赣南师范大学 地理与环境工程学院，赣州 341000;3.中国地质大学（武汉）资源学院，武汉 430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 江西省社会科学规划项目(19GL30);江西省教育厅(JXJG-18-14-5);国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201710418003) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于气候情景数据与油茶标本，运用MaxEnt模型分析全新世中期、当代与未来阶段油茶生长的气候适宜性特征，将概率分布结果由不适宜到最适宜分为4个等级，分析了各时段空间分布变化与最适宜区北界变化、几何中心变化及位移情况。结果如下：1）MaxEnt模型的AUC值为0.848，评估结果达到“好”的标准，说明该模型可用；年降水量、最湿季降水量、最暖季平均温、温度季节性变化的标准差、最干月降水量、最湿季平均温和最冷季平均温等是7个主要环境因子。2）中国油茶主要适宜生长于长江以南、云贵高原以东，经纬度范围为30°N以南、107°E以东地区；适宜及以上等级占研究区面积的34.9%~61%；适宜性变化，空间上西南地区波动明显，面积上稳定和降低类占比较高。3）油茶最适宜区北界位于亚热带中部，不同年代、不同地区北界各异，长江中下游地区变化较小，而秦岭、渝、贵和桂等地变动较大，整体趋势为全新世中期至1980s向南推移，未来情景下2050s和2070s缓慢向北推移；几何中心在全新世中期时位于湖南郴州，至1980s时向东南方位移至广东韶关，至2050s时向东北位移至江西吉安，并相对稳定。4）基于气候情景数据和MaxEnt物种分布模型分析中国南方地区油茶气候适宜性时空分布与变化特征结果可靠。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候适宜性 MaxEnt模型 气候变化 时空特征 油茶 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-01-05 |
Suitability Characteristics of Camellia oleifera Growth under Climate Change Scenarios |
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| Xiaojun Wang,Guangxu Liu,Tong Xiao.Suitability Characteristics of Camellia oleifera Growth under Climate Change Scenarios[J].Tropical Geography,2020,40(5):868-880. |
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| Authors: | Xiaojun Wang Guangxu Liu Tong Xiao |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Geographical Sciences, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China;2.School of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Gannan Normal University, Ganzhou 341000, China;3.Faculty of Earth Resources, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on research into climate suitability and employing a species distribution model, this paper examines climatic data from six periods from the mid-Holocene (MH), 1970-2000 (the 1980s), RCP4.5 and 8.5 under 2041-2060 (2050s4.5, 2050s8.5) and 2061-2080 (2070s4.5, 2070s8.5), combined with data from Camellia oleifera specimens. The study uses the MaxEnt model to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of the suitability of C. oleifera growth under climate change scenarios. The suitability results are divided into four levels, from low to high, and the spatial distribution changes of the suitability of each transition period, the change of the northern boundary and the geometric center, and the displacement of the most suitable area are analyzed. The results show that: 1) According to the specimens and growth habits, C. oleifera is mainly distributed in the hilly areas of southern China, with latitude and longitude ranging from 18°31' to 33°15' N and 101°34' to 121°51' E, respectively, and the area is mainly in the subtropical East Asian monsoon climatic belt and has plenty of sunshine and heat. 2) The area under the curve (AUC) values of the training data set and the test data set of the MaxEnt model are 0.848 and 0.817, respectively, and the evaluation results reach the "good" standard, so that this model can be used for climate suitability analysis for the growth of C. oleifera. Taking the distribution probability P≥0.35 as the standard, the annual precipitation ≥1 100 mm, precipitation of the wettest quarter ≥550 mm, a mean temperature of the warmest quarter ≥20℃, a temperature seasonality <8.9, precipitation of the driest month ≥15 mm, a mean temperature of the wettest quarter 17-28℃, and a mean temperature of the coldest quarter ≥4℃ are the seven main environmental factors and ranges suitable for the growth of C. oleifera. Their contribution rates are all over 4%, and the cumulative contribution rate reaches 90.1%. 3) The areas with the highest climate suitability for C. oleifera in China are mainly south of the Yangtze River and east of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, with a range of south of 30°N and east of 107°E. In general, the suitable level and above accounted for 34.9%-61% of the study area, and Hunan, Jiangxi, and Guangdong areas are the most suitable. Concerning the suitability changes, the southwest region fluctuates in space, and the most suitable area in the southeast hilly area is relatively stable. The areas of stable type and decrease type account for a relatively high proportion, which is 58.1%-71.5% and 9.3%-33.6%, respectively. 4) The northern boundary of the most suitable region for C. oleifera mainly lies between 24 ° N and 33 ° N in the central subtropical zone, which varied greatly in Qinling Mountains, Chongqing, Guizhou, and Guangxi in different periods. On the whole, it moved to the south from the middle Holocene to the 1980s, and moved northward from the 1980s to the 2050s and 2070s. The geometric center and displacement shifted to the East and North as a whole, and the most suitable center was located in Chenzhou, Hunan Province, in the middle Holocene. In the 1980s, it moved southeast to Shaoguan, Guangdong Province, in the 2050s, it will move northeast to Ji'an, Jiangxi Province, and in 2070s, it will move to the southwest and northeast in the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, but will still be present in Ji'an. 5) When climate scenario data and the MaxEnt species distribution model are used to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of C. oleifera climatic suitability in southern China, the results have a good correspondence with similar research results and China's C. oleifera production statistics. This correlation indicates that the results are reliable and can be used as a reference for C. oleifera planting divisions. |
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| Keywords: | climatic suitability MaxEnt model climate change temporal and spatial characteristics Camellia oleifera |
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