| 人口-经济-住房租赁市场耦合协调研究——以中国35个大中城市为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 牟玲玲,王欣然,王晨曦.人口-经济-住房租赁市场耦合协调研究——以中国35个大中城市为例[J].热带地理,2022,42(6):889-901. |
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| 作者姓名： | 牟玲玲 王欣然 王晨曦 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北工业大学 经济管理学院，天津 300400 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学青年基金项目（71904042）； |
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| 摘 要： | 城镇化推进过程中，人口流入经济发达的大中城市，而高房价使住房租赁需求日益增加。人口、经济与住房租赁市场相互影响，三系统的协调发展是城市可持续发展的必然要求。在构建人口-经济-住房租赁市场系统评价指标体系的基础上，采用耦合协调及空间误差模型，探讨2018—2019年中国35个大中城市人口-经济-住房租赁市场三系统的耦合协调水平及其影响因素。研究发现：1）人口、经济和住房租赁市场作为3个社会系统，彼此相互影响。在城市可持续发展视角下，三系统之间的协调发展应是人口合理流动、经济运行良好与住房租赁市场平稳运行，三系统共赢共荣。2）35个大中城市人口与经济综合水平整体有所上升，但住房租赁市场综合水平稍有下降。3）35个大中城市人口-经济-住房租赁市场系统的耦合协调度有所上升，但各城市间耦合协调水平差异变大，其中划入住房租赁试点城市的耦合协调度相对较高。同时，东部城市耦合协调度普遍较高，其中上海市和北京市已达到良好协调水平，其他城市基本为初级协调水平；中部和东北部城市大多为勉强协调水平；西部城市大多处于濒临失调水平。4）经济结构、人口规模、房地产市场发展水平与教育资源是提高人口-经济-住房租赁市场系统协调水平的重要因素。
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| 关 键 词： | 住房租赁市场 人口 经济 耦合协调 中国 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-07-16 |
Coupling Coordination of Population-Economy-Housing Rental Market: An Analysis Based on Data from 35 Large and Medium-Sized Cities |
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| Lingling Mu,Xinran Wang,Chenxi Wang.Coupling Coordination of Population-Economy-Housing Rental Market: An Analysis Based on Data from 35 Large and Medium-Sized Cities[J].Tropical Geography,2022,42(6):889-901. |
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| Authors: | Lingling Mu Xinran Wang Chenxi Wang |
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| Institution: | School of Economics and Management, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300400, China |
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| Abstract: | With urbanization, the influx of populations into economically developed large- and medium-sized cities, and the reality of high property prices are forcing the rental housing market to expand. The population, economy, and housing rental market interact, and the coordinated development of the three systems is an inevitable requirement for sustainable urban development. To coordinate the relationship between population, economy, and the housing rental market in large and medium-sized cities, it is crucial to solve the housing problem and achieving "housing for all so that everyone can live and work happily". Based on coupling coordination and spatial error models, this study explores the level of coupling coordination of the population-economy-housing rental market system in thirty-five large and medium-sized cities across China in 2018-2019, and explores its influencing factors. The results show the following: (1) As three social systems, the population, economy, and housing rental market interact with each other. In the perspective of sustainable urban development, the harmonious development between the three systems is a rational movement of population, a well-functioning economy and a smoothly functioning housing rental market, where the three systems win and prosper together. (2) Among the 35 large and medium-sized cities, the integrated population level and economic subsystems are on an upward trend; the integrated housing rental market level has slightly decreased, and although the integrated evaluation value of the housing rental market in the eastern core cities is higher, it still lags behind the population and economy development. (3) Considering the time, the difference in the development of the coupling and coordination degree of the population-economy-housing rental market system of each city has become more extensive. Still, the overall trend is upward, and the coupling and coordination degree of cities classified as pilot housing rental cities are relatively high. (4) For space, there are significant differences in the degree of coupling and coordination of the population-economy-housing rental market system between regions. The degree of coupling coordination in eastern cities is generally higher than in other regions; Shanghai and Beijing have reached a substantial coordination level. Among the central cities, the coupling coordination of Zhengzhou and Changsha remains at the primary coordination level, the coupling coordination of Wuhan rises to the primary coordination level, and the coupling coordination of the other cities is mainly at the barely coordinated level. There is a wide gap in the coupling coordination between cities among western cities. The coupling coordination of Chongqing is at the primary coordination level, of Xi'an and Urumqi is at the barely coordinated level, and of Chengdu has increased from the slightly coordinated level to the primary coordination level. The coupling coordination of other western cities is at the verge of dissonance, except for the cities mentioned above. The coupling coordination degree of all four cities decreased slightly in the northeast region, while Harbin dropped to the near-disordered level. (5) The level of economic development, population size, level of development of the real estate market, and educational resources are notable factors in increasing the level of coupling and coordination of the system. This study analyzes the coupling and coordination between population, economy, and the housing rental market in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from the coordinated development perspective. This enriches the housing rental market research and alternatively provides a reference for decision-making to address the housing problem in large and medium-sized cities in China and achieve "housing for all". |
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| Keywords: | housing rental market population economy coupling coordination China |
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