| 基于结构分解法的北京能源碳排放增量分析(英文) |
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| 引用本文： | 张旺,申玉铭,周跃云.基于结构分解法的北京能源碳排放增量分析(英文)[J].资源与生态学报（英文版）,2014,5(2):115-122. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张旺 申玉铭 周跃云 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京100048 [2]湖南工业大学全球低碳城市联合研究中心,株洲412007 |
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| 基金项目： | the National Twelfth-Five Year Science and Technology Support Program （2011BAJ07B03-06）. |
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| 摘 要： | 确保减碳的首要任务是定量测度化石能源消费碳排放的增量影响因素及其大小。为分析北京市1997-2007年的碳排放增量,本文构建了一个扩展的(调入、进口)竞争型经济—能源—碳排放投入产出模型,从整体特征、不同产业、工业行业3个方面,对1997-2007年北京能源消费的碳排放增量进行了结构分解。分析发现:经济规模增长要素(消费、投资、调出和出口等)是拉动碳排放增长的主导因素,能源强度变动效应却是碳减排的决定性因素;在规模扩张因素中,消费和调出超过投资和出口,是碳排放增长的主要贡献者;2002以来新一轮"高碳"特征的工业化导致CO2排量呈急增之势;产业结构调整、三产比重最大使得服务业成为碳排放增长的最大部门,但工业排放的增长却后来居上;碳增排的重点行业是高能耗业,而碳减排的却是能源工业;两时段各效应在不同产业、不同工业行业的影响方向和大小不一。
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| 关 键 词： | I-O SDA法 能源消费 CO2排放 效应 北京市 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-03-25 |
Increased CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption Based on Three-Level Nested I-O Structural Decomposition Analysis for Beijing |
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| ZHANG Wang,SHEN Yuming,ZHOU Yueyun.Increased CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption Based on Three-Level Nested I-O Structural Decomposition Analysis for Beijing[J].Journal of Resources and Ecology,2014,5(2):115-122. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Wang SHEN Yuming ZHOU Yueyun |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Resource Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China;2.Global Joint Research Centre for Low Carbon City, Hunan University of Technology, Zhuzhou 412007, China |
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| Abstract: | The first task in ensuring a reduction in CO2 emissions is to quantitatively measure the factors and their effect size on increasing CO2 emissions due to fossil fuel consumption. An extension of the buying and import-noncompetition economy-energy-CO2 emission input-output model was designed to analyze CO2 emission increases for Beijing from 1997-2007. The increase in CO2 emissions because of energy consumption was broken down into nine kinds of effects including the change in energy consumption intensity and structure, and economic scale expansion. We found that the effect of economic scale expansion such as consumption investment, export and selling were the main factors increasing CO2 emissions. The effect of the change in energy consumption intensity was the dominant factor reducing CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions increased rapidly from 2002. The ifrst increase in carbon emissions was related to the service industry, adjustment in industrial structure and the priority given to tertiary industries. High energy consumption manufacturing was the industrial branch driving CO2 emissions; the main industry driving CO2 emission reductions was the energy industry. The new round of industrialization with ‘high carbon’ features meant that CO2 emissions increased rapidly from 2002-2007. The quantity and direction of the nine focal effects varied across industries and different industrial sectors. |
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| Keywords: | I-O SDA method energy consumption carbon dioxide emissions Beijing |
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