| 基于SWAT的典型沼泽性河流径流演变的气候变化响应研究——以三江平原挠力河为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 姚允龙,王蕾.基于SWAT的典型沼泽性河流径流演变的气候变化响应研究——以三江平原挠力河为例[J].湿地科学,2008,6(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 姚允龙 王蕾 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所湿地生态与环境重点实验室,吉林,长春,130012;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100049
2. 中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所湿地生态与环境重点实验室,吉林,长春,130012;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100049;黑龙江科技学院建筑工程学院,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150027 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新工程项目 |
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| 摘 要： | SWAT（Soil and Water Assessment Tool）是流域尺度的分布式水文模型，具有评价气候变化对径流影响的优势。利用SWAT模拟了三江平原典型沼泽性河流——挠力河流域3个水文站（上游的宝清站、保安站和中游的菜嘴子站）1974～1992年年径流量演变特征及变化趋势。在对模型参数敏感性分析的基础上，对模型的参数进行了率定和验证，率定期为1975～1982年，验证期为1983～1992年。率定期的模型效率指数ENS都大于0．85，皮尔逊相关系数都大于0．9，相对误差都小于10％；验证期，模型效率指数ENS有所减小，但也都大于0．61，模型对年径流的模拟结果令人满意。将率定的SWAT应用于气候变化的水文响应研究，结果发现，1995～2004年相对1975—1985年的年径流量变化只有部分是由气候因素引起的，气候因素对3个水文站（宝清站、保安站和菜嘴子站）的年径流量变化的影响率分别为25．7％、11．4％、39．9％，说明还有其他因素影响研究区的年径流量。
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| 关 键 词： | 挠力河 径流变化 气候变化 SWAT |
Influence of Climate Change on Runoff of Typical Marsh River in Sanjiang Plain Based on SWAT——Study in Naoli River |
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| YAO Yun-Long,WANG Lei.Influence of Climate Change on Runoff of Typical Marsh River in Sanjiang Plain Based on SWAT——Study in Naoli River[J].Wetland Science,2008,6(2). |
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| Authors: | YAO Yun-Long WANG Lei |
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| Abstract: | Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)which is a distributed watershed model has more advantages on the study of the response of runoff to climate changes.Based on SWAT,the characters and tendency of annual runoff in 3 hydrologic stations(Baoqing station,Bao'an station and Caizuizi station)of Naoli River watershed were simulated from 1974 to 1992.Furthermore,the sensitivity analysis of the SWAT was expatiated and applied to simulate the rainfall and runoff relationship in Naoli River watershed.Based on the sensitivity analysis,the main parameters affecting the simulated values in this watershed were determined,and the parameters were adjusted.During the period of calibration from 1975 to 1982,the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients(ENS)and Pearson correlation coefficients R2 exceed 0.85,and the relative error was under 10% over 8 years continuous simulations on annual discharges;and during the period of validation,the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients(ENS)just exceed 0.61 whose value decreased more than other coefficients' value.The simulation results of annual runoff were satisfactory.Then the SWAT was used to study on the hydrological response to climate changes,and it was found that only a portion of the changes of annual runoff in 3 hydrologic stations was caused by climate changes from 1995 to 2004 relative to those from 1974 to 1984,the portion was 25.7%,11.4% and 39.9% respectively. |
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| Keywords: | Naoli River runoff change climate change SWAT |
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