| 资源环境保护下天津市用地空间增长模拟 |
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| 引用本文： | 罗紫元,曾坚.资源环境保护下天津市用地空间增长模拟[J].地理研究,2022,41(2):341-357. |
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| 作者姓名： | 罗紫元 曾坚 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津大学建筑学院,天津 300072 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（52078320,52078330）； |
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| 摘 要： | 从资源承载和生态保护的角度预测城镇土地利用变化,是实现国土空间用途管制的客观需求。以典型缺水城市天津市为研究区,采用系统动力学模型预测土地利用规模、最小成本路径法构建生态廊道和FLUS模型模拟土地利用变化等方法,分别模拟自然扩张和资源环境保护情景下天津市2035年土地利用情况。结果表明：① 资源约束条件显著制约城镇人口和建设用地的超量发展,随着资源约束增强、科技发展增速,人口和建设用地增长量随之降低,城镇GDP保持稳定增长。② 天津市重要生态廊道以南北向联系为主,东部和北部生态廊道重要性较高,部分生态廊道由于路径较长或距离建设用地较近而面临被蚕食挤压的风险。③ 水体湿地在资源环境保护情境下面积略有增长,在自然扩张情境下则延续以往不可持续的发展模式,出现向草地退化的情况,部分生态源地和廊道受到耕地侵占和建设用地扩张的影响。④ 受交通发展和京津职住分离的影响,天津市城镇建设用地增长主要发生在蓟州、武清和宝坻区。此外,在资源环境保护情景下,中心城区和滨海新区增长率较低,津南区表现出较大发展潜力。以资源环境承载约束城镇扩张,能够为国土空间规划实践提供科学引导。
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| 关 键 词： | 空间增长 土地利用 FLUS模型 系统动力学 随机森林 天津 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-08-07 |
Spatial growth simulation of land use in Tianjin from the perspective of resource and environmental protection |
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| LUO Ziyuan,ZENG Jian.Spatial growth simulation of land use in Tianjin from the perspective of resource and environmental protection[J].Geographical Research,2022,41(2):341-357. |
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| Authors: | LUO Ziyuan ZENG Jian |
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| Institution: | School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China |
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| Abstract: | Predicting urban land use changes from the perspective of resource carrying and ecological protection is an objective requirement for realizing land spatial governance.Taking the typical water-scarce city,Tianjin,as the research area,this paper predicted the scale of land use with the system dynamics model,constructed ecological corridors by using the minimum cost path method,and examined land use change with the FLUS model,etc.to simulate the city's land use in 2035 under scenarios of natural expansion and resource environmental protection.Results show that:(1)The resource constraints significantly restrict the excessive development of urban population and construction land.With the enhancement of resource constraints and technological development,the growth of population and construction land will slow down while GDP maintains steady growth.(2)The important ecological corridors in Tianjin are mainly connected in the north-south direction,and corridors in the eastern and the northern parts are of great importance.Some ecological corridors face the risk of encroachment by cultivated land and construction land due to the long paths or close to construction land.(3)The area of water body and wetland increased slightly under resource environmental protection scenario,while the natural expansion scenario continued the unsustainable development mode,with part of water body,wetland,and forest degrading to grassland,and some ecological sources and corridors being occupied by cultivated land and construction land.(4)Affected by the development of transportation and the separation of occupation and residence between Beijing and Tianjin,the urban construction land in Tianjin mainly expanded in Jizhou,Wuqing and Baodi districts.In addition,under the resource environmental protection scenario,the growth rate of the central city and Binhai New Area is relatively low,and Jinnan District has great development potential.Constraining the expansion of cities and towns based on the carrying capability of resources and environment can provide scientific guidance for the practice of territory spatial planning. |
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| Keywords: | spatial growth land use FLUS model system dynamics random forest Tianjin |
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