| 湖北气候与管理因素变化对棉花单产影响的区域差异 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙烨琳,樊文有,史培军,王铸,孙劭.湖北气候与管理因素变化对棉花单产影响的区域差异[J].地理研究,2021,40(4):1064-1077. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙烨琳 樊文有 史培军 王铸 孙劭 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京 1008752.北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京 1008753.中国地质大学（武汉）地理与信息工程学院,武汉 4300744.北京师范大学应急管理部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京 1008755.青海师范大学高原科学与可持续发展研究院,西宁 8100086.国家气象中心,北京 1000817.国家气候中心,北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602404);国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(41621061) |
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| 摘 要： | 湖北省是中国重要的植棉省份之一,气候和管理因素变化对棉花生长产生重要影响。因此,本文采用1986—2016年湖北气温、降水量和太阳辐射量3个气候因子数据,有效灌溉面积、农用化肥施用量和棉花品种3个管理因素数据,构建了面板回归模型,定量计算得到气候因子和管理因素的趋势和波动变化对棉花单产的影响及其相对贡献率。结果表明：① 气候和管理因素的波动变化大于气候和管理因素的趋势变化对棉花单产的影响。② 气温和太阳辐射量对湖北省大部分地级市的棉花单产呈现正影响,降水量对湖北省大部分地级市的棉花单产呈现负影响;有效灌溉面积、农用化肥施用量和棉花品种都对湖北省大部分地级市的棉花单产呈现正影响。③ 气温、降水量和有效灌溉面积是影响湖北省大部分地级市棉花单产的主导因子。④ 1986—2016年武汉市等地级市棉花增产的主要原因是管理因素变化主导的增产抵消了气候因子变化的减产影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 趋势 波动 棉花 区域差异 湖北 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-04-03 |
The regional difference of the influence of climate change and management factors on cotton yield in Hubei province |
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| SUN Yelin,FAN Wenyou,SHI Peijun,WANG Zhu,SUN Shao.The regional difference of the influence of climate change and management factors on cotton yield in Hubei province[J].Geographical Research,2021,40(4):1064-1077. |
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| Authors: | SUN Yelin FAN Wenyou SHI Peijun WANG Zhu SUN Shao |
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| Abstract: | Hubei is one of the most important cotton production provinces in China. Climate change and management factors have great impacts on cotton growth. Therefore, based on the data of temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, effective irrigated area, agricultural fertilizer application and cotton varieties in Hubei province from 1986 to 2016, a panel regression model is established to calculate the impact and relative contribution rate of the trend and fluctuation of climatic factors and management factors on cotton yield. The results show that: (1) The fluctuation of climatic factors and management factors has a greater impact on cotton yield, compared with the trend of climatic factors and management factors. (2) Temperature and solar radiation have a positive impact on cotton yield of most cities in Hubei, while precipitation has a negative impact on it. Effective irrigated area, agricultural fertilizer application and cotton varieties also have a positive impact on the cotton yield of most cities. (3) Temperature, precipitation and effective irrigated area are the leading factors affecting the cotton yield of most cities. (4) The main reason for the increase in cotton yield of Wuhan and other cities during 1986-2016 is that the positive impact of management factors on cotton yield counteracts the negative impact of climatic factors on cotton yield. |
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| Keywords: | climate change trend fluctuation cotton regional differences Hubei |
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