| 中国北方地区用水进入低增长和微增长阶段的必要性和可能性简 |
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| 引用本文： | 陆大道,贾绍凤,白永平.中国北方地区用水进入低增长和微增长阶段的必要性和可能性简[J].地理研究,2014,33(2):203-213. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陆大道 贾绍凤 白永平 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;
2. 西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 兰州 730070 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院中国水问题咨询项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 水资源如何能够得到长期和可持续的供应和利用，已成为全社会十分关注的重大问题。中国用水问题突出的是在北方地区。而北方地区依赖“开源”解决水问题已面临极限挑战。本文论证了中国北方地区未来进入用水微增长乃至零增长阶段的可能性和必要性。其主要依据是近年来的用水增长态势是进入稳定低增长阶段的前兆；农业用水量增长态势呈波动状态，效率有所提高；工业年耗水量在波动中有所下降；生活用水特别是城镇生活用水上升，但占全部用水的比重小。在政府管理和用水理念方面，需要在用水需求、用水观念、节水措施、制度建设上作出与时俱进的调整。
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| 关 键 词： | 用水 低增长 北方地区 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-10-12 |
Study on the necessity and possibility of water use decrease in northern China |
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| LU Dadao,JIA Shaofeng,BAI Yongping.Study on the necessity and possibility of water use decrease in northern China[J].Geographical Research,2014,33(2):203-213. |
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| Authors: | LU Dadao JIA Shaofeng BAI Yongping |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
2. College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China |
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| Abstract: | How to utilize water resource sustainably has become one of the foci for the whole society. Water waste and low use efficiency have been the primary cause for China's water crisis. Northern China faces serious water shortage, where water resources have been overexploited for a long time, rivers became dried, the underground water was over exploited,and the river ecology and environment deteriorated. It has little possibility to further "broaden source". Although the South to North Water Transfer Project is being constructed, the cost is very high. In recent years, water use in most parts of northern China was still increasing slowly. According to the experience of developed countries, water use follows the law of Kuznets Curve: it increases along with economic development in the beginning, and reaches the peak and turns down when economic development reaches a higher level. So water use in northern China will certainly enter into a phase of low and even zero growth. The water use trend in recent years showed the premonition of turning into the stage of water use decrease:Agriculture water use decreased fluctuatedly, and the efficiency increased gradually; Industrial water use also decreased; Domestic water use, especially in cities and towns, increased, but it made up a very small percentage of the total water use. Therefore, the total water use quantity in northern China may enter into a stage of low increase or even decrease soon. In the long run, we estimate that the upper limit of total water use will be about 250 billion m3.In the aspects of government water resources management and water use idea, we should make adjustment in water demand planning, water use philosophy, water-saving measures and institutional arrangement, such as changing the tradition of overestimating water demand in making planning, and changing the traditional view of water as welfare, promote water price,and constructing a water-conserving society, etc. |
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