| COVID-19疫情冲击下的中国对外贸易韧性格局及影响因素 |
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| 引用本文： | 宗会明,张嘉敏,刘绘敏.COVID-19疫情冲击下的中国对外贸易韧性格局及影响因素[J].地理研究,2021,40(12):3349-3363. |
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| 作者姓名： | 宗会明 张嘉敏 刘绘敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 西南大学地理科学学院,重庆400715 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(42071209);重庆市教委人文社会科学研究项目 |
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| 摘 要： | COVID-19疫情全球爆发,成为载入史册的一次全球公共卫生事件。在此期间,中国贸易的变化反映了突发公共卫生事件对全球和地方贸易的影响,凸显了中国的贸易韧性。借鉴区域经济韧性理论开展中国贸易韧性的格局和影响因素研究,利用2020年1—12月中国31个省（自治区、直辖市）的贸易数据,对其贸易的整体状况和贸易韧性格局进行分析,并运用地理探测器的方法对疫情冲击下的中国贸易韧性格局的影响因素进行探讨。研究发现：① 根据与2019年同期比较,可将中国贸易韧性变化过程划分为两个阶段,2020年1—5月为抵抗期,2020年6—12月为恢复期。② 在疫情影响下,各省份的贸易韧性具有较大差异,贸易抵抗性较好的区域主要包括四川、陕西、江西等内陆中西部省份和河北省,较差的区域主要为对外贸易基础较差、疫情严重地区以及边境省份。而贸易恢复性较好的主要为云南、贵州等内陆省份和疫情冲击影响最严重的湖北省。③ 疫情冲击下影响中国贸易韧性的因素是多源的,整体来看最大贸易国疫情严重程度、贸易伙伴数量、本地疫情严重程度因子等对贸易抵抗性解释度最高;对贸易恢复性解释度最高的因子为地区经济发展水平和医药产业状况。除了各维度因子不同程度的影响,各因子间的交互作用均增强了贸易抵抗性与恢复性的空间分异性。关于中国贸易韧性格局及影响因素的探讨,对认识特殊事件冲击下的全球化进程和区域贸易韧性评估具有重要的理论价值,也对构建中国国内国际双循环新发展格局具有重要的实践意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 贸易韧性 区域格局 影响因素 COVID-19 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-04-12 |
Spatial pattern and influencing factors of China's foreign trade resilience under the COVID-19 pandemic |
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| ZONG Huiming,ZHANG Jiamin,LIU Huimin.Spatial pattern and influencing factors of China's foreign trade resilience under the COVID-19 pandemic[J].Geographical Research,2021,40(12):3349-3363. |
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| Authors: | ZONG Huiming ZHANG Jiamin LIU Huimin |
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| Institution: | School of Geographical Sciences,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China |
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| Abstract: | With the global outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the changing process of China's trade reflects the resilience of public health emergencies to global and local trade. This article draws on the theory of regional economic resilience to conduct research on China's trade resilience and its spatial pattern. This article uses China's 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) as the research unit and reviews the overall situation of national trade and the trade resilience pattern of all the provinces from January 2020 to December 2020. We explore the factors affecting China's trade resilience pattern under the impact of the pandemic using the model of geographic detectors. The research finds that: (1) According to the trade data compared with the same period of the previous year, China's foreign trade resilience under the COVID-19 pandemic can be clearly divided into two phases, namely, resistance period (from January to May 2020, and recovery period (after May 2020). (2) Under the influence of the pandemic, the trade resilience of various provinces varies significantly. The regions with poor trade resistance are mainly provinces with poor trade foundations, severely-affected pandemic influencing areas and border provinces, and the areas with good trade recovery are mainly inland provinces. (3) There are many factors that affect China's trade resilience under the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, the situation of COVID-19 pandemic of the biggest foreign trade partner, the number of trading partners, and local pandemic situation have the highest explanation for its trade resistance. The factors with the highest degree of explanation of trade recovery are the level of economic development and the status of the pharmaceutical industry. In addition, the interaction between the factors enhances the spatial differentiation of China's trade resistance and resilience at the provincial level. The discussion on the pattern of China's trade resilience and its influencing factors has important theoretical value for understanding the globalization process under the impact of emergency events and the assessment of regional trade resilience, and also contribute to the establishment of a "dual circulation" development pattern, in which domestic economic cycle plays a leading role while international economic cycle is still its extension and supplement. |
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| Keywords: | foreign trade resilience spatial pattern influencing factors COVID-19 |
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