| 接触型与非接触型犯罪时空稳定性对比及其联合防控——以盗窃和电信网络诈骗为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 柳林,吴林琳,张春霞,宋广文.接触型与非接触型犯罪时空稳定性对比及其联合防控——以盗窃和电信网络诈骗为例[J].地理研究,2022,41(11):2851-2865. |
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| 作者姓名： | 柳林 吴林琳 张春霞 宋广文 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.广州大学地理科学与遥感学院 公共安全地理信息分析中心，广州 5100062.辛辛那提大学地理系，辛辛那提 OH45221-01313.广州番禺职业技术学院旅游商务学院，广州 511483 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(42171218);国家自然科学基金项目(41901177);国家自然科学基金项目(42001171);国家自然科学基金项目(41901172);广东省自然科学基金项目(2019-A1515011065) |
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| 摘 要： | 近年来，以盗窃为代表的接触型犯罪和以电信网络诈骗为代表的非接触型犯罪均呈多发态势，严重影响社会治安稳定。已有研究对不同类型犯罪分布模式的时空稳定性关注仍不够，且未能提出不同类型犯罪的空间联合防控策略。本文以ZG市HT区为例，以社区为分析单元，运用核密度估计、时空跃迁测度法等方法，对比分析2017年盗窃犯罪和电信网络诈骗犯罪的时空分布特征及其空间分布模式的月度稳定性，并从犯罪防控角度改进时空跃迁测度法，结合二阶聚类法识别两类犯罪联合防控空间类型。研究发现：① 两类犯罪时空稳定性差异大，盗窃犯罪的空间分布模式稳定，月度变化小；而电信网络诈骗犯罪空间稳定性整体波动起伏大，月度变化较大；② 识别出两类犯罪的四种联合防控空间类型，分别是“两类犯罪无需防控社区”“两类犯罪邻域防控社区”“盗窃犯罪热点防控、电信网络诈骗犯罪无需防控社区”“盗窃犯罪连片防控、电信网络诈骗综合防控社区”。该研究有助于了解接触型犯罪和非接触型犯罪时空特征的共性和差异性，给警务联合防控提供决策支持。
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| 关 键 词： | 接触型犯罪 非接触型犯罪 时空稳定性 时空跃迁 联合防控 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-04-11 |
Comparison of spatio-temporal stability between contact crime and non-contact crime and their joint prevention and control: A study of theft and telecommunication network fraud |
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| LIU Lin,WU Linlin,ZHANG Chunxia,SONG Guangwen.Comparison of spatio-temporal stability between contact crime and non-contact crime and their joint prevention and control: A study of theft and telecommunication network fraud[J].Geographical Research,2022,41(11):2851-2865. |
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| Authors: | LIU Lin WU Linlin ZHANG Chunxia SONG Guangwen |
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| Institution: | 1. Center of GeoInformatics for Public Security, School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China2. Department of Geography, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45221-0131, USA3. College of Tourism Business, Guangzhou Panyu Polytechnic, Guangzhou 511483, China |
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| Abstract: | In recent years, contact crime represented by theft and non-contact crime represented by telecommunication network fraud are both increasing, seriously affecting social stability and people′s property security. Previous studies have paid less attention to the spatial and temporal stability of different types of crime distribution patterns, and no research has yet compared the spatio-temporal stability of contact crime and non-contact crime. In the meantime, current studies also failed to propose spatial joint prevention and control strategies for different types of crime. This study takes HT District of ZG City as an example, takes the community as the analysis unit, uses kernel density estimation and space-time transition measure method to compare and analyze the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and monthly stability of the spatial distribution pattern of theft and telecommunication network fraud in 2017. After that, we refer to the idea of spatio-temporal transition to improve the method of space-time transition from the perspective of crime prevention and control, and then identified the spatial prevention and control types of theft and telecommunication network fraud. Based on this, combined with the method of two-step cluster to recognize the joint prevention and control spatial types of two kinds of crime. The findings are as follows: (1) The spatial and temporal stability of the two types of crime is different. The spatial distribution pattern of theft crime is stable and its spatio-temoral transition indexes of adjacent months are more than 50%. However, the spatial distribution pattern of telecommunication network fraud is unstable and fluctuates greatly on the whole. What it is worth to mention is that the pattern is especially stably in February and March. (2) Four spatial types of joint prevention and control of these two types of crimes are recognized, which are respectively "two types of crime without prevention and control communities", "two types of crime neighborhood prevention and control communities", "theft crime hotspot prevention and control, telecommunication network fraud without prevention and control communities" and "theft crime coordinated prevention and control, telecommunication network fraud comprehensive prevention and control communities". This study is helpful to understand the similarities and differences between contact crime and non-contact crime in time and space, and provide guidance for police prevention and control. |
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| Keywords: | contact crime non-contact crime spatial and temporal stability space-time transition joint prevention and control |
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