| 人口流动对区域老龄化进程的影响——一个方法论探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘涛,张家瑞,曹广忠.人口流动对区域老龄化进程的影响——一个方法论探讨[J].地理研究,2022,41(10):2680-2696. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘涛 张家瑞 曹广忠 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.北京大学城市与环境学院,北京 1008712.北京大学未来城市研究中心,北京 100871 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD173) |
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| 摘 要： | 持续活跃的迁移流动不仅深刻改变着中国的人口分布格局,也已成为影响区域人口结构的关键因素。为量化估计人口流动对老龄化进程的影响,本研究构建了一个方法论框架,将人口流动的作用分解为规模效应和年龄结构效应,并从地级尺度分析中国人口流动对区域老龄化进程的作用,解读其空间规律和内在机制。总体而言,人口流动导致多数地区老龄化加深,仅有少数地区的老龄化得到缓解;人口流入对老龄化的降低作用和流出的提升作用并非绝对。人口流动的老龄化效应具有显著的空间分异和聚散特征：“胡焕庸线”是重要分界,人口大量流入的东部沿海城市群、内陆省会等区域性中心城市、西部多数地区降低作用突出,人口大量流出的长江中上游和淮河流域提升作用明显。规模效应在人口流动对老龄化及其空间格局的影响中发挥主导作用;按流入、流出分解后,结构效应的解释力得以体现。规模和结构效应在不同地区存在差异化的作用模式。最后开展了类型分析,并探讨了各类型区人口流动影响老龄化的特征和未来趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 人口流动 区域老龄化 因素分解 流入流出 规模效应 年龄结构效应 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-11-08 |
The effect of internal migration on regional aging: A decomposition method |
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| LIU Tao,ZHANG Jiarui,CAO Guangzhong.The effect of internal migration on regional aging: A decomposition method[J].Geographical Research,2022,41(10):2680-2696. |
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| Authors: | LIU Tao ZHANG Jiarui CAO Guangzhong |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China2. Center for Urban Future Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China |
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| Abstract: | The continuously growing internal migration in China has not only profoundly changed the population distribution pattern, but also become a key factor affecting the regional variation in population structure, of which the significantly varying level of aging is a typical case. In order to quantitatively estimate the region-specific aging effect of migration, this study developed a methodological framework to decompose the contribution of migration to regional aging into scale effect and age structural effect. The effects of in- and out-migration could be examined separately and comprehensively by using this method. Empirical analysis was conducted at the prefecture level with focuses on the spatial patterns and underlying mechanisms of the separate and overall effects. The estimation results revealed that migration has accelerated the aging process in most prefectures whereas alleviated it in a few regions. The reducing effect of population inflow and the enhancing effect of outflow on aging were not necessary as commonly expected in the existing literature. Remarkable regional variation was found in the aging effect of migration. The well-known Hu Huanyong Line was a distinct divide of the aging effect due to its significant role in the geography of China's internal migration. The aging process was slowed down greatly by massive in-migration in coastal mega-regions, inland provincial capitals and other regional central cities, as well as most western prefectures. In contrast, the process was accelerated in the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River Basin with large-scale out-migration. The overall effect was contributed and the spatial patterns were shaped jointly by the scale effect and structural effect with the dominance of the former. Significance of the latter emerged as the effects of in- and out-migration were evaluated separately. Moreover, the two effects manifested diverse importance and modes in different areas. Finally, a typological analysis was conducted to identify the most typical features, mechanisms, and future trends of aging in various regions across the vast territory of China. These empirical studies and results demonstrated the rationality and effectiveness of this novel methodological framework. The limitation of this decomposition method and the future study to improve it was discussed in the end. |
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| Keywords: | internal migration regional aging decomposition analysis in- and out-migration scale effect age structural effect |
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