|
|||||
|
|
| 泥石流灾害水文气象联合预报 | |
| 引用本文： | 丛威青,潘懋,任群智,李铁锋.泥石流灾害水文气象联合预报[J].山地学报,2006,24(4):437-441. |
| 作者姓名： | 丛威青 潘懋 任群智 李铁锋 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 北京大学造山带与地壳演化教育部重点实验室,北京大学地球与空间科学学院,北京,100871 2. 辽宁省冶金地质勘查局地质调查研究院,辽宁,鞍山,114002 3. 中国地质环境监测院,北京,100081 |
| 基金项目： | 辽宁省鞍山市地质灾害评价预警系统(辽国资发[2004]6号~~ |
| 摘 要： | 由于降雨型泥石流是我国泥石流灾害的主要类型,所以以往对泥石流灾害的预测预报主要通过对雨量数据的分析来实现。但是由于雨量站记录雨量和灾害发生雨量并不一致,这就极大的影响了单纯依赖雨量数据预测预报的准确性。在分析环境因素影响的基础上,将水文和气象资料结合起来,用于泥石流灾害的预测预报。通过比较灾害发生前、发生时和发生后的河流洪峰流量、日降雨量和小时降雨量,发现洪峰流量和小时降雨量对灾害发生有很好的指示作用。经过在辽宁省岫岩满族自治县的试验,得到洪峰流量1 800 m3/s和小时降雨量50~60 mm这两个该县泥石流灾害发生临界值。结果表明水文和气象资料的联合应用,会大大改进泥石流灾害的预测预报效果。 |
| 关 键 词： | 泥石流 水文 气象 |
| 文章编号： | 1008-2786-（2006）4-437-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-12-11 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-02-18 |
The Prediction of Debris Flows Depending on Hydrology and Meteorology |
|
| CONG Weiqing, PAN Mao, LI Tiefeng.The Prediction of Debris Flows Depending on Hydrology and Meteorology[J].Journal of Mountain Research,2006,24(4):437-441. | |
| Authors: | CONG Weiqing PAN Mao LI Tiefeng |
| Institution: | 1. The Key Laboratory of Orogenic Belts and Crustal Evolution, Ministry of Education ,School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; 2. Geologic Exploration Institute, Liaoning Bureau of Geology and Mineral Exploration for Metallurgy, Anshan 114002 , China ; 3. China Institute of Geo-Environment Monitoring, Beijing 100081 , China |
| Abstract: | A multidisciplinary approach is adopted in this paper in order to study the very complex phenomenon of rainfall triggered debris flows.Rainfalls are the main inducements of debris flows in China.So it's the most common method to predict debris flows through analyzing the relationship between rainfalls and debris flows.But because disaccords between the record of gauges and the actual rainfalls causing debris flows always exist,the veracity is greatly affected.In this paper,data of geomorphology,geology,hydrology and meteorology of Xiuyan of Liaoning province are collected.On the basis of investigation of the environmental background of disasters,the hydrological and meteorological behaviors which triggered debris flows are analyzed.The peak flows of rivers,day rainfalls and hour rainfalls before and after debris flows are different.Through comparing them it was found that hydrological behavior of a drainage area is a good indication of the day when debris flows will occur and meteorological behavior is a good indication of the hour.Critical peak flow(1 800 m~(3)/s) and critical rainfall(50~60 mm/h) of debris flows in Xiuyan are pointed out.Not with standing the simplifications introduced to carry out in this study,the proposed approach demonstrates the possibility of predicting debris flows through multidisciplinary methods and hence the potential of improving debris flow risk assessment. |
| Keywords: | debris flows hydrology meteorology |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |