| 山地地质灾害气象等级预报(预警)模型应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 薛根元,诸晓明,王镇铭.山地地质灾害气象等级预报(预警)模型应用[J].山地学报,2006,24(4):416-423. |
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| 作者姓名： | 薛根元 诸晓明 王镇铭 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 浙江省气象局,浙江,杭州,310002
2. 浙江省绍兴市气象局,浙江,绍兴,310002 |
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| 基金项目： | 浙江省重点科研项目(编号2003C23021)，浙江省科研项目(2004C33082)~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 浙江省是一个山地地质灾害多发地区,这些灾害包括泥石流、滑坡、崩塌等,它们的发生大多与降水有关。在分析浙江省地质灾害发生规律的基础上,探讨了地质灾害气象等级预报(预警)模型的主要结构、功能和特点,重点讨论了该模型在台风强降水引发的地质灾害预报(预警)中的应用情况。该模型应用于0414号台风“云娜”、0418号台风“艾利”影响期间浙江省地质灾害的预报(预警),取得了较好的效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 数值预报 地质灾害 预报预警 应用研究 |
| 文章编号： | 1008-2786-（2006）4-416-08 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-12-17 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-03-25 |
The Research on the Application of the Model of Geological Disasters Meteorological Degree Forcast (Early-warning) |
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| XUE Genyuan,ZHU Xiaoming,WANG Zhenming.The Research on the Application of the Model of Geological Disasters Meteorological Degree Forcast (Early-warning)[J].Journal of Mountain Research,2006,24(4):416-423. |
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| Authors: | XUE Genyuan ZHU Xiaoming WANG Zhenming |
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| Institution: | l. Meteorological Bureau of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou 310002, China; 2. Shaoxing City Meteorological Bureau in Zhejiang Province, Shaoxing , Zhejiang 313000, China |
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| Abstract: | There are frequently geological disasters occuring in Zhejiang Province,and they are mud-rock flow,landslip of the mountains,falling and the downthrow of the earth et al.,most of which are correlative with the percipitation.On the base of analysing the regularity of the geological disasters' occuring in Zhejiang Province,it is interpreted that the system of the weather forcast about the breaking-out geological disasters,which including medium-scale numerical weather forcast model MM5 and the levels forcast of the geological disaster.The system applied for the early-warning of geological disaster in the Province during the time when the 0414 Rananim and the 0418 Aere(typhoon) happening in 2004,which operated effectively.The paper chiefly discusses the primary structure of the LAPS and the characters of MM5,especially the application of the early-warning and defense of the geological disaster caused by the typhon. |
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| Keywords: | numerical weather forcast geological disaster forcast (early-warning) research |
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