Impacts of seismic activity and climatic change on Chinese history in the recent millennium |
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| Authors: | FAN Jiawei JIANG Hanchao XU Hongyan ZHANG Wei |
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| Institution: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China2. Xinjiang Pamir Intracontinental Subduction National Observation and Research Station, Beijing 100029, China3. Urumqi Institute of Central Asia Earthquake, China Earthquake Administration, Urumqi 830011, China4. State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS, Beijing 100029, China |
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| Abstract: | General history of disasters in China suggests that China has frequently experienced two major natural disasters in its long history, one is from catastrophic earthquake events, and the other is from extreme climatic events, due to its unique active tectonic environment and climatic complexity. Although these two major natural disasters have caused great damage to human society, it remains unclear whether and how they affect Chinese dynasty alternation on decadal (emperor) timescales. Based on detailed comparisons between abrupt climatic changes, catastrophic seismic activities, and the history of Chinese dynasty alternation from 1000-2000 AD, we conclude that on decadal timescales, extreme drought (and/or flood) events could indeed significantly reduce agricultural production, cause severe food shortages and famine, and result in increases in population exile, rising food prices and inflation, and insufficient supplies for military defense, which could exceed social resilience and eventually lead to financial risks and social upheavals of the dynasties. In addition, catastrophic seismic events in the densely populated, agricultural areas of China, including the 1303 surface wave magnitude (Ms) 8.0 Hongtong earthquake, the 1556 Ms 8.25 Huaxian earthquake and the 1920 Ms 8.5 Haiyuan earthquake, caused more than 200,000 casualties and millions of victims to live in exile which was almost equivalent to the order of magnitude of those extreme climatic events-induced refugees. The secondary geological hazards related to the earthquakes (e.g., extensive landslides and soil erosion), which could last for decades, caused more casualties and reduced food production. Furthermore, great plague spread caused by the casualties could significantly increase psychological panic among the survivors, resulting in social instability. Therefore, catastrophic seismic events could also accelerate the collapse of the dynasties (e.g., the Ming dynasty) without immediate mitigation measures. This study indicates that catastrophic seismic activities, as well as extreme climatic events, could have great effects on the social structures and thus on the Chinese dynasty alternation on decadal timescales, which highlights the far-reaching implications of geological hazard research. |
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| Keywords: | catastrophic seismic activity extreme climatic event agricultural production social stability Chinese dynasty alternation |
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