| 近47 a来黑河流域的降水时空特征分析及预报评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁荣,王伏村,王静,梁俊宁.近47 a来黑河流域的降水时空特征分析及预报评估[J].中国沙漠,2009,29(2):335-341. |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁荣 王伏村 王静 梁俊宁 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,甘肃,兰州,730020;甘肃省张掖市气象局,甘肃,张掖,734000
2. 甘肃省张掖市气象局,甘肃,张掖,734000 |
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| 基金项目： | 甘肃省科学技术研究项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1960—2006年黑河流域13个气象站, 地面气温、降水等观测资料,对该流域降水的气候年代际特征及干旱变化的成因进行了初步分析。结果表明,该流域降水量,由于受地形地貌、海拔高度和不同尺度大气环流的影响,流域内降水分配极不均匀,南北差异很大, 呈现为东南多西北少, 但降水日数的年月分布和流域的地理分布与降水量分布基本一致。总体上变化均呈波动性上升状态。同时,对2000年承担黑河流域分水的预报任务中研制的黑河流域降水预报服务系统输出的24~48 h降水量预报过程的准确率进行了TS评分检验。证明该系统对黑河流域的降水具有较强的预报能力,预报产品在气象服务工作中有重要参考价值,同时也为今后的精细化预报业务工作打下了一定的基础。
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| 关 键 词： | 黑河流域 降水量 时空分布 气候变化 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008-6-27 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008-9-12 |
Analysis on Spatial-temporal Characteristics of Precipitation in Heihe River Basin and Forecast Evaluation in Recent 47 Years |
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| DING Rong,WANG Fu-cun,WANG Jing,LIANG Jun-ning.Analysis on Spatial-temporal Characteristics of Precipitation in Heihe River Basin and Forecast Evaluation in Recent 47 Years[J].Journal of Desert Research,2009,29(2):335-341. |
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| Authors: | DING Rong WANG Fu-cun WANG Jing LIANG Jun-ning |
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| Institution: | 1.Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorology Administration &; Key Laboratories of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730020, Gansu China; 2.Zhangye Meteorology Bureau, Zhangye 734000, Gansu, China |
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| Abstract: | The inter-annual climate change characteristics and the cause of drought in Heihe river basin were analyzed based on the observation data such as ground temperature and precipitation of the 13 weather stations in 1960—2006. The results showed that, influenced by topography, altitude and the different scales of the atmospheric circulation, the precipitation distribution in this basin is uneven, being more in the southeast and less in the northwest. But the rainy days distribution is consist with the geographical distribution. In order to rationally allocate the water resources, a precipitation forecast system was set up for the Heihe river basin in 2000. The forecasting accuracy of this system for the coming 24 to 48 hours precipitation was tested by the TS analysis. It was proved that the system has strong forecasting capability, and the weather forecast products have important reference value in weather service, also it can be certainly taken as the foundation for the future refinement forecast work. |
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| Keywords: | Heihe river basin precipitation spatial and temporal distribution climate change |
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