| 灰色预测模型在径流长期预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 蓝永超,杨志怀.灰色预测模型在径流长期预报中的应用[J].中国沙漠,1997,17(1):49-52. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蓝永超 杨志怀 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院兰州冰川冻土研究所，甘肃省水利厅 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于灰色系统的建模理论，利用河西地区有关河流的径流观测资料，建立了一个ＧＭ（１，１）残差序列周期修正径流预测模型，并用于春旱缺水期３～６月河流来水量的长期预报，经生产部门验证，准确率在８０％以上
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色模型 径流长期预报 残差序列 周期修正 |
APPLICATION OF GREY MODEL ON LONG RANGE FORECASTING OF RUNOFF |
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| Abstract: | Based on the modeling theory of Grey System, a predicting model used for runoff long range forecast was presented. The Grey model has been applied to re obtain the theoretic discharge of Yingluoxia Hydrometric Station in Heihe River as well as the other principal rivers in Hexi area. Compared with the runoff documents during dry period from March to June of these rivers, the mean forecasting accuracy is over 80%. |
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| Keywords: | Grey model Runoff Long range forecast Residual error series Correction of period |
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