| 黄河流域气候变化研究综述 |
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| 引用本文： | 王有恒,谭丹,韩兰英,李丹华,王鑫,卢国阳,林婧婧.黄河流域气候变化研究综述[J].中国沙漠,2021,41(4):235-246. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王有恒 谭丹 韩兰英 李丹华 王鑫 卢国阳 林婧婧 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.兰州区域气候中心，甘肃 兰州 730020;2.兰州中心气象台，甘肃 兰州 730020 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41605090);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J054);甘肃气象局科研项目(Ms2021-16) |
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| 摘 要： | 黄河流域从西到东跨越多省，地形复杂，作为中国生态安全战略格局的重要组成部分，是中国气候变化敏感区和生态环境脆弱区。本文主要综述了在气候变暖背景下，黄河流域气候变化特征、影响以及成因和对策建议的最新研究进展：（1）近60年黄河流域气温呈上升趋势，平均升温速率为0.30 ℃/10a，上游升温速率最大，下游次之，冬季升温趋势最显著，夏季最小，降水量上游地区增多，中下游地区减少，蒸散量呈减少趋势。（2）在气候变化和人类活动影响下，黄河流域径流量整体呈下降趋势，源区冰川积雪消融加剧，冻土严重退化，流域植被覆盖整体呈好转趋势，上游脆弱区和中游产沙区水土流失加重，对农业影响利弊皆存，流域病虫害加剧；流域气候变暖，极端天气气候事件增多，对文化遗产安全保存带来巨大挑战。（3）黄河流域气候系统随时间演变的过程不仅受自身内部的动力、热力影响，也受大气环流、海温、青藏高原等外部强迫因子的影响，人类活动造成的大气成分和土地利用覆盖的变化是影响黄河流域局地气候的重要因子。（4）未来黄河流域气温持续上升，降水波动增加，极端天气事件将更加频繁。应对气候变化，重点在于加强黄河流域气候变化科学研究，提升极端天气气候事件的预报预警能力，联合多部门建立气象、水文、生态与数值预报及防控一体化的灾害预报预警系统，同时加强流域水资源的管理调配和有效利用，加强流域生态环境保护，制定科学合理的农业发展战略，推动黄河流域高质量发展。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 影响 成因 应对 黄河流域 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-05-26 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021-07-15 |
Review of climate change in the Yellow River Basin |
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| Youheng Wang,Dan Tan,Lanying Han,Danhua Li,xin Wang,Guoyang Lu,Jingjing Lin.Review of climate change in the Yellow River Basin[J].Journal of Desert Research,2021,41(4):235-246. |
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| Authors: | Youheng Wang Dan Tan Lanying Han Danhua Li xin Wang Guoyang Lu Jingjing Lin |
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| Institution: | 1.Lanzhou Regional Climate Center，Lanzhou 730020，China;2.Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory，Lanzhou 730020，China |
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| Abstract: | The Yellow River Basin is an important part of ecological security strategy in China， and it is a sensitive area of climate change and a vulnerable area of ecological environment. This paper mainly analyzes and reviews the latest research progress on the characteristics， impacts， causes and countermeasures of climate change in the Yellow River Basin： （1） In recent 60 years， the temperature shows an upward trend， with an average warming rate of 0.30 ℃ per decade， and the trend of temperature rise is the most significant in winter and the smallest in summer. The precipitation in the upstream increased， while that in the middle-stream and lower-stream decreased significantly. （2） In recent years， under the joint influence of climate change and human activities， a series of problems have appeared in the Yellow River Basin， such as the reduction of runoff， the degradation of glaciers and frozen soil， the improvement of vegetation coverage， the increase of soil erosion in the ecological fragile areas of upstream and sand-producing areas of the middle-stream. The impact of climatic change on the crops is not only of advantageous aspects but also of disadvantageous， and the pets and diseases increase. The climate warming and the increase of extreme events have brought great challenges to the safe preservation of cultural heritage. （3） The evolution process of climate system in the Yellow River Basin is not only affected by its own internal power and heat， but also by external forcing factors such as atmospheric circulation， sea surface temperature and Qinghai Tibet Plateau. The change of atmospheric composition and land use/cover caused by human activities is an important factor affecting the local climate. （4） In the future， the temperature will still show an upward trend， the precipitation fluctuation will increase， and extreme weather events will occur more frequently in the Yellow River Basin. It is necessary and urgent to take adaptive measures to deal with climate change. These measures mainly include strengthening the scientific research on the impact of climate change and extreme events， improving the ability of forecasting and early warning of extreme weather events， establishing a disaster forecasting and early warning system integrating meteorology， hydrology， ecology， numerical prediction， prevention and control， strengthening the management， allocation and effective utilization of water resources， strengthening the protection of ecological environment， formulating scientific and reasonable agricultural development strategy， and promoting the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. |
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| Keywords: | climate change impact cause response Yellow River Basin |
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