| 西北地区春季沙尘暴气候分析及预测方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵红岩,陈旭辉,王锡稳,白虎志,董安祥,俞亚勋.西北地区春季沙尘暴气候分析及预测方法研究[J].中国沙漠,2004,24(5):637-641. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵红岩 陈旭辉 王锡稳 白虎志 董安祥 俞亚勋 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所 甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室, 甘肃 兰州 730020;2. 兰州中心气象台, 甘肃 兰州 730020 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技部社会公益研究专题课题"西北干旱区沙尘暴预警、服务系统研究"(2000DIA10031)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用甘肃、宁夏1955-2002年的气象实测资料, 北半球500hPa月高度场, 月平均太平洋海表温度场资料, 将沙尘暴发生的变化趋势看作每年春季的一个气候现象, 分析其发生的气候变化趋势、年代际变化以及与大气环流、海温的相关关系, 得出沙尘暴气候趋势预测的着眼点, 建立沙尘暴短期气候预测概念模型。此模型对沙尘暴发生变化趋势的预测具有一定的实用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 沙尘暴 气候分析 预测模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-694X(2004)05-0637-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2003-10-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年10月15 |
Climatic Analysis and Forecasting Method of Sand-dust Storms in Northwest China |
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| ZHAO Hong-yan,CHEN Xu-hui,WANG Xi-wen,BAI Hu-zhi,DONG An-xiang,YU Ya-xun.Climatic Analysis and Forecasting Method of Sand-dust Storms in Northwest China[J].Journal of Desert Research,2004,24(5):637-641. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Hong-yan CHEN Xu-hui WANG Xi-wen BAI Hu-zhi DONG An-xiang YU Ya-xun |
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| Institution: | 1. Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China;2. Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, Lanzhou 730020, China |
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| Abstract: | Correlative analyses showed that regional sand-dust storm climate during spring in Northwest China at some extent has relation with winter circulation field and precipitation field, pole region circulation, westerly circulation and subtropical anticyclone, as well as with the Pacific sea surface temperature field. Based on the relation a conceptual model for forecasting sand-dust storm phenomena of the study region has been put forward. Results judged by the conceptual model are accordant to the results of multivariate regression analysis. It was proved by the actual application that the conceptual model has considerable forecasting ability. |
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| Keywords: | sand-dust storm climate analysis conceptual forecasting model |
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