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| 西藏羊卓雍湖流域近45年气温和降水的变化趋势 | |
| 引用本文： | 杜军,胡军,唐述君,鲍建华,拉巴.西藏羊卓雍湖流域近45年气温和降水的变化趋势[J].地理学报,2008,63(11):1160-1168. |
| 作者姓名： | 杜军 胡军 唐述君 鲍建华 拉巴 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 西藏自治区气候中心 拉萨 850001 2. 拉萨市气象局,拉萨,850001 3. 西藏自治区水文水资源勘测局,拉萨,850000 4. 西藏自治区气象信息网络中心,拉萨,850001 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(40565002) |
| 摘 要： | 利用西藏羊卓雍湖流域气象、水文观测站1961-2005年逐月的平均气温、降水量等资料,分析了近45年流域气温、降水的年际和年代际变化特征和异常年份,以及羊湖水位变化趋势及影响因子,结果表明：近45年流域年平均气温以0.25oC/10a的速率显著升高,增温主要表现在秋、冬季。近25年,流域平均降水量除冬季呈减少趋势外,其他各季节表现为显著的增加趋势,增幅为11.4-30.0mm/10a,夏季增幅最大;年降水量以54.2mm/10a的速率明显增加。20世纪60年代至90年代,除夏季外,其他3季表现为逐年代增温趋势。在夏季,降水量除80年代偏少外,其他3个年代偏多;而冬季相反,80年代降水偏多,其他3个年代偏少。流域年平均气温异常偏高年出现过3次,且发生在20世纪90年代末至21世纪初;60年代后期和70年代初降水多异常年份。自1997年发电以来,降水量呈增加趋势,流域平均降水量达409.7mm,明显高于平衡降水量,水位呈较明显的上升趋势。降水增多、日照减少,以及气温明显升高、冰雪融水增加是造成水位上升的主要原因。 |
| 关 键 词： | 气温 降水量 湖面水位 年际和年代际变化 羊卓雍湖流域 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008-01-13 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008-07-20 |
Climatic Variations of Temperature and Precipitation in the Yamzho Yumco Lake Basin of Tibet from 1961 to 2005 |
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| DU Jun,HU Jun,TANG Shujun,BAO Jianhua,LHAK Pa.Climatic Variations of Temperature and Precipitation in the Yamzho Yumco Lake Basin of Tibet from 1961 to 2005[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2008,63(11):1160-1168. | |
| Authors: | DU Jun HU Jun TANG Shujun BAO Jianhua LHAK Pa |
| Institution: | 1. The Climatic Center of Tibet, Lhasa 850001, China; 2. Lhasa Meteorological Bureau, Lhasa 850001, China; 3. Water Resources Survey and Hydrology Bureau of Tibet, Lhasa 850000, China; 4. Meteorological Information & Network Center of Tibet, Lhasa 850001, China |
| Abstract: | The interannual, interdecadal variations and anomalous years of the annual and seasonal mean temperature and precipitation are investigated in the context of the monthly data at 9 meteorological and hydrological stations in the Yamzho Yumco Lake basin of Tibet from 1961 to 2005 by using modern statistical diagnostic methods such as the linear trend, and the relationship between lake level and precipitation is discussed. The results show that the annual temperature presented a significant increasing trend and the rate of increase is about 0.25 oC/10a during recent 46 years, indicating that the warming trend is obvious in autumn and winter. In recent 25 years (1981-2005), the precipitation presents a decreasing trend in winter, while the increasing trend is apparent in other seasons with a rate of (11.4-30.0) mm/10a, especially in summer. Finally, the annual precipitation shows an obviously increasing trend and the rate is 54.2 mm/10a. In terms of interdecadal variations, the mean temperature increases apparently in most seasons, except in summer. The summer precipitation is less in the 1980s, more in the other three decades. On the contrary, in winter the precipitation is more in the 1980s, less in the other three decades. Also, the warm anomalous years of annual mean temperature occurred three times in the end of the 1990s and the early 2100s. The more precipitation anomalous years occurred in the end of the 1960s and the early 1970s. Since generation of electricity with the water of the Yamzho Yumco Lake in 1997, the trend of annual precipitation has increased. The mean precipitation is about 409.7 mm in the basin, which is higher than the balanced rainfall, and presents an obvious increasing trend of the lake level. The water level rise is directly correlated with precipitation increase and sunshine decrease, while the apparent rise of temperature and the increase of snowmelt are also important factors. |
| Keywords: | temperature precipitation lake level interannual and interdecadal variations Yamzho Yumco Lake Basin of Tibet |
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